Introduction to Growth Scenario Working Group Dina Mackin, Energy Division April 14, 2017

Commission Guidance on Growth Scenarios Development of growth scenarios needs to be coordinated with IRP and TPP processes in terms of process schedule and consistency of methodology and results. Local DER adoption scenarios must support the primary distribution planning objectives of providing safe, reliable, affordable, and clean energy services to customers. Input on known DER projects from distribution engineering staff is critical to maintaining reasonable local forecasts. Information/feedback from stakeholders representing the various DERs could be beneficial in developing better locational DER adoption scenarios.

Working Group Objectives To support a timely completion of the growth scenarios, to allow proceeding to stay on schedule To provide an understanding to CPUC and stakeholders of the issues involved in forecasting the DER resources and disaggregating to the local level Facilitate the documentation of the methodology and results of the growth scenarios, for future updates and for process alignment with IRP/TPP

2017 Distribution Resource Planning Schedule ICA Report ICA Working Group IOU Integrate Capacity Analysis Model Runs Track 1 PD LNBA & ICA Adoption LNBA Working Group LNBA Report LNBA Working Group IOU Locational Net Benefit Modeling What are the products and when are they due? Track 2 PD Demonstration Projects C, D & E Growth Scenario workshop GS Report Growth Scenario WG Track 3 PD Growth Scenarios Grid Modernization DER Deferral Grid Mod workshop Grid Mod whitepaper Comments/ replies Growth Scenario Results DER Deferral workshop DER Deferral whitepaper Comments/ replies Grid Needs Assessment SCE GRC PD SCE GRC Commission Decision CPUC Task Party/Stakeholder input IOU Task

Policy Considerations in development of growth scenarios Consistency with other planning processes--demand forecast and CAISO's TPP Long-term responsiveness to IRP Updated to respond to actual DER adoption rates

Potential IRP-DRP Information Flows IRP to DRP Short Term: GHG abatement cost or marginal supply resource as input into Avoided Cost Calculator Long Term: More granular information about system impacts or optimal amounts of different types DERs DRP to IRP Short Term: Forecast of autonomous growth of DERs as fixed input (DERs external to optimization) Long Term: Location-specific cost information for DERs to inform supply curve (DERs part of optimization) Others may be identified as processes develop Appropriate coordination with CEC’s demand forecasting and CAISO’s transmission planning activities is an active subject of ongoing interagency dialogue