Paradigms and the Future of Computing Manuel E. Bermúdez, Ph.D. CISE, University of Florida manuel@cise.ufl.edu http://www.cise.ufl.edu/~manuel

Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018 Contents Paradigms. Paradigm definition. The paradigm shift. Paradigm blindness and paralysis. Examples. Future Perspectives. Conclusions. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Definition of Paradigm. Thomas Kuhn (The Structure of Scientific Revolutions): "… accepted samples of practical methods in science” (keyword: accepted) Adam Smith (Powers of the Mind): ”A shared set of assumed facts. Water to the fish, a paradigm explains the world and allows us to predict its behavior. When in the middle of a paradigm, it is difficult to imagine any other“ (keywords: fish in water). Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Definition of Paradigm (cont.) Willis Hartman (An Incomplete Guide to the Future): "… a basic way of perceiving, thinking, valuing and doing things that are associated with a particular vision of reality”. (keywords: particular vision) Marilyn Ferguson (The Aquarian Conspiracy): "… a framework for thought… a scheme for understanding and explaining certain aspects of reality“ (keywords: understanding, explaining). Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Definition of Paradigm (cont.) 06/12/2018 Definition of Paradigm (cont.) Joel Barker (Discovering the Future: The Business of Paradigms): " … a set of rules that define limits, and establish what’s necessary to be succesfull within those limits". (keywords: rules, defining behavior) IMPORTANT: Paradigms tend to have VERY FEW rules. Humans have a STRONG tendency to resist letting them go. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018 The Paradigm Shift A change in rules: old rules not only stop being useful, but they GET IN THE WAY. Examples (in general): Nomadism to Sedentarianism. Geocentrism to Heliocentrism. Creationism to Evolution. Catastrophism to Gradualism. Regionalism to Globalization. Globalization to ??? Climate change. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

The paradigm shift(cont.) Examples (in computing): Structured programming. Object oriented programming. The WWW. “Towers of Hanoi” Ubiquitous computing Waterfall to Agile (Software Engineering) Expert Systems to Machine Learning. Trifecta: ubiquitous, cloud-supported, AI IMPORTANT: Paradigm shifts occur suddenly. Their timing is VERY difficult to predict. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

The paradigm shift (cont.) Change is instigated by an “outsider”. The new college graduate, or a scientist moving from one discipline to another: Unfamiliar with the established paradigm. Not “vested” in the old paradigm. Example: ”If I had thought about it, I wouldn’t have done it. The literature is full of examples that show that this cannot be done" -- (Spencer Silver of 3M, inventor of Post-it notes). Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis The mortal disease of certainty. Paradigms act as physiological filters; a colored filter before the eyes. The rules for the new paradigm are often completely INVISIBLE to those still subscribing to the old paradigm. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis Example: In the late 1930’s, Chester Carlson showed Kodak, IBM and 41 other companies his new “photographic system”: a steel plate, some black powder, a piece of cat fur, a piece of amber, some wax paper, and an iron. Only the Halloid Corporation adopted the new system (they later became ???) Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis Example: Who invented the quartz clock? The swiss! Characteristics of paradigm blindness: ”That’s not the way we do it". ”It is not going to work". ”That’s impossible". ”If you had my years of experience, you would know you are wrong“ Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis Example: A personal computer for the year 2004: Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis Examples . . . Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Some Future Perspectives Carl Sagan (astronomer),1970: This human generation is unique: In its youth, the stars were a mystery. In its old age, it is witness to humanity’s first off-planet exploratory steps. Manuel Bermúdez (witch doctor), 2018: This human generation is UNIQUE: It’s the last one that will remember what the world was like before it was CONNECTED. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Some Future Perspectives ~1975, Bill Gates made a bet: $/CPU-cycle  0. What can you bet on today ? The ratio: NBTS/$   Moore’s Law ? Web Services: computing as a utility Impact of Robotics: social displacement, warfare, economics, transportation Nanotech, Nanomed Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Some Future Perspectives Consequences (among many others): More opportunities than ever, to position oneself favorably (Hint: go to graduate school NOW). Eventually, “friction-free capitalism" (Bill Gates) Availability of perfect market information, in real time. Paradigm shift: manufacturing responding to market, rather than trying to anticipate it (Dell). The factory of the future: one man, one dog . . . Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Some Future Perspectives Harlan Mills, 1995: Software engineering is now 50 years old. At age 50, civil engineering had not yet developed the right-angle triangle. Bermúdez, 2018: We marvel at the empiricism of the Egyptians and Maya as they built their pyramids. In the year 7000, will they marvel at us ? Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018 Conclusions This is a GREAT time to be involved in the area of computing. Few (if any) other disciplines show as much dynamism as CS/CE does. The same characteristics that make this such a dynamic profession, also make us vulnerable to paradigm shifts. Many people will be left behind. A short story ... Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018 Conclusions Thank you ! Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018