The prospect for diesel and the likely real-world impact of RDE and WLTP: how effective will they be? Aidan Revie 9 November 2017

The context Air quality is illegally high in many places Diesel engines are blamed The solution must be delivered fast, whatever the cost Confidence in official data is low Trust in manufacturers is low especially since #dieselgate Electrification, if it happens, cannot solve the problem quickly enough Cities are now taking unilateral action Consumer confusion is increasing This is a market and environmental problem

EMISSIONS ANALYTICS’ PROGRAMME

Emissions Analytics’ credentials Founded in 2011 Headquartered in UK, with operations in London, Los Angeles and Stuttgart Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis 1500+ vehicles tested Largest commercially available database of real-world emissions data Works with OEMs, Tier 1/2 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators, consultancies, consumer media

Equipment SEMTECH-DS and -LDV Portable Emissions Measurement System connects to tailpipe Captures emissions for CO2, CO, NO, NO2, total hydrocarbons At 1 Hertz Air temperature, pressure, humidity GPS for speed and altitude Engine data via CANBUS Fuel economy derived via carbon balance Weight addition 100kg

Emissions Analytics concept Similar to RDE… Real roads Realistic routes Normal driving styles But crucially different… Vehicles sourced independently Independent drivers Standardised test

PROSPECTS FOR RDE AND NOx

The legacy NOx problem… bad news Average EF now ~7 Rising since 2015, back almost to Euro 5 peaks Despite prospect of Real Driving Emissions Growing variability Use of thermal management and hot re-start strategies? Beating first phase of RDE in 2017?

…worse news… Dirtiest Euro 6 diesels are 6-7 times worse than cleanest Euro 5 And are ~3 times worse than cleanest Euro 3/4 And are about twice as dirty as the average Euro 3/4

But good news… diesels can be clean Average Euro 6 diesel 13 times average gasoline car But cleanest diesels (5% percentile) are as clean as the average gasoline Has been the case for almost 2 years Not being able to discriminate within Euro 6 is significant market failure

Challenges for RDE Technically sophisticated regulation, with potential for strong in-use surveillance; but… 1.5 Conformity Factor only applies to all cars from January 2021 Equivalent US regulation has been 31 mg/km for a decade Not independently conducted Boundary conditions could potentially be gamed Conflicts results from normalisation tools Complex interaction between WLTC and RDE within EMROAD tool RDE will not apply retrospectively “Euro 6” as a label is fundamentally compromised 54% of higher polluting Euro 6s need to be restricted to generate 87% reduction in NOx

Policy opportunity Incentivise off road as soon as possible Main issue is speed Policy opportunity: Remove all pre-Euro 5 diesels Discriminate with Euro 5 and Euro 6 Incentivise going beyond regulatory minimum Accelerate fleet turnover Incentivise off road as soon as possible

PROSPECTS FOR WLTP AND CO2

Growing fuel consumption gap Worse real-world fuel consumption in 2016 for both diesel and gasoline Diesel 25% more efficient than gasoline, despite direct injection penetration 32% 40%

Will WLTC help? WLTC not so different from NEDC New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) World Light Duty Transient Cycle (WLTC) Emissions Analytics Measurements MPG, CO2, CO, NOx MPG, CO2, CO, NOx, NO, NO2 Cycle Defined speed trace Defined route Test location Laboratory On road with PEMS Conduct By OEM Independent Normalisation None Based on dynamic characteristics Average speed (mph) 21 29 28 Average acceleration (mph/s) 1.1 1.0 1.5 Average gradient (m/s) 0.0 0.8 WLTC not so different from NEDC High speed could lead lower CO2 Offset by more acceleration/ deceleration Small net effect Uncertain effect of closing loopholes Best case – still 20% CO2 gap?

PRACTICAL SOLUTION

EQUA Index Vehicle rating scheme based on their real-world emissions and fuel economy Non-statutory complement to new Real Driving Emissions regulations Discriminates between high and low emitters, even within Euro class – not just pass/fail Ratings are published and into the public domain for free at www.equaindex.com Manufacturers, fleets and consumer media can adopt as independent, voluntary standard Equivalent to New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP, Global NCAP) Authoritative advisory board Robust, independent standard needed to measure and incentivise actions to bring about air quality improvements

EQUA Aq

EQUA CO2 “A1” to “H5” A to H for absolute emissions 1 to 5 for proximity to official – “honesty” 39% average CO2 excess – 189 g/km 16% higher emissions from petrol compared to diesel 1.5 litre engines better than most highly down-sized 2.0-3.0 litre engines most honest

EQUA Mpg, EQUA 100 MPG values for almost all vehicles on sale in last five years Over 70,000 model variants Remainder extrapolated using new proprietary model of real-world MPG, based on technical characteristics of vehicles Comprehensive alternative to official system

FUTURE PROSPECTS

Four commercial factors Fuel efficiency Depreciation In-use CO2 NOx, CO Diesel Gasoline Gasoline HEV PHEV – short trip PHEV – long trip EV Position threatened unless low NOx can be proven Market as unsubsidised, profitable product not yet established

Advance of gasoline HEVs HEVs historically had urban MPG advantage May overtake diesel in motorway driving this year Further advanced in US Even now, has emits less CO2 than like-for-like diesel

Aidan Revie, Business Development Director aidan@emissionsanalytics Aidan Revie, Business Development Director aidan@emissionsanalytics.com +44 (0) 20 7193 0489 +44 (0) 7931 1472687