The Evolution of FRASER and AlFRED: St. Louis Fed Real Time Data Services Robert H. Rasche Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Views expressed are mine and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.

Real-Time Data Initiatives FRASER – Federal Reserve Archival System for Economic Research –Electronic Image Archive of Economic Data and Source Materials AlFRED – Archival FRED –Real-time Data Base System for Macroeconomic Time Series

FRASER Electronic image archive of historic economic statistical publications (.pdf files) –Organized chronologically and by subject Completed: –All Bank Statistics, Annual Statistical Digests, Banking and Monetary Statistics –Economic Indicators –Productivity and Costs Statistical Releases –Capacity Utilization Statistical Releases; –Business Conditions Digest –Economic Report of the President –Reference materials from A. Meltzer, Volume 1 Short-term Goals: –Survey of Current Business; H.6 Money Releases –Construction Review –McChesney Martin Papers Future Additions: –Federal Reserve Bulletin (joint effort with BoG) –Congressional Hearings and Testimony of FR Officials

AlFRED Extension of FRED – Since FRED became Web-based in 1996, we have preserved real- time archive files (generally at weekly frequency.) Over that time period FRED has expanded from roughly 381 to 1175 U.S. macroeconomic time series (and 1881 regional series) Additional real-time archival data from NET and MT since 1967.

Measuring Valid Time Ideally want the release dates for each update of the series: –Have collected all NIPA release dates from 1948 –Have Employment release dates from 1950s –Have IP release dates from 1927 –Have Productivity & Costs, ECI release dates from beginning –Have Money Stock (H.6) release dates from 1960 –Have Housing Starts release dates from 1950

Measuring Valid Time Protocol when release dates are not available from source agency: –Searchable Historical archive of NY Times and Wall Street Journal –Has proved an extensive source of exact release dates. e.g. have confirmed exact date for all but one NIPA release date (5/18/62) Were able to pin down an interval of about a week for that release – guessed based on the typical release timing.

Development Strategy Have now uploaded the FRED archive –Real time histories of all the series contained in FRED since Dec –Have not included daily data Typically Interest rates and exchange rates last since data generally dont revise (although publication errors are not unknown.)

Development Strategy Extended FRED archives back using NET and MT histories Series we have available –Civilian and Payroll Employment (monthly) since Jan-66 –Industrial Production (monthly) since May-27 –Retail Sales (monthly) since 66 –Nominal Personal Income (Monthly) since Jan-66

A Tabular Guide to the NIPA Accounts in AlFRED August 2006

Blue = complete history; brown = history in process; orange = in FRED archive only

Development Strategy –M1 (monthly data– weekly valid time dates) since 60 –M2 (monthly data – weekly valid time dates) since 62 –Real Personal Income (monthly) since Nov-76 –Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales since Dec-76 with some gaps –Output per hour private business sector since Mar-71 with some gaps

Development Strategy –Output per hour nonfarm private business sector since Jun-68 with some gaps –Compensation per hour nonfarm private business sector since Dec- 72 with some gaps –Unit labor Costs private business sector since Mar-71 with some gaps

Development Strategy –Nominal Disposable Personal Income (monthly) since Dec-79 –Real Disposable Personal Income (monthly) since Dec-79 Add additional series and/or extend scope of current FRED series –As users, your Priorities???

Development Strategy Evolve the User Access and Download System –Implement selection of a range of valid dates for a series. –Loop over vintages for a specified list of series (i.e. recursive data sets) –Unique source material citation string (replication) –As users, what are your desired features??

879 National Series

Excel Output Files

WP A Marcelle Chauvet, and Jeremy M. Piger, "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," March 2005Jeremy M. Piger"A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,"

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