JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System and the

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Dennis P. Lettenmaier Alan F. Hamlet JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Change Streamflow Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Water Planning Studies JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington October, 2002 Alan F. Hamlet Amy Snover Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Climate Change Scenarios Long term planning for climate change may include a stronger emphasis on drought contingency planning, testing of preferred planning alternatives for robustness under various climate change scenarios, and increased flexibility and adaptation to climate and streamflow uncertainty. Observed Streamflows Planning Study Altered Streamflows Climate Change Scenarios Other Inputs

Changes in Mean Temperature and Precipitation or Bias Corrected Output from GCMs ColSim Reservoir Model VIC Hydrology Model

Climate Change Scenarios 2040s

The main impact: less snow April 1 Columbia Basin Snow Extent

Columbia River at The Dalles 2040s “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenario

Water Management Agencies The Problem: Different Tools Different Objectives Water Management Agencies Academic Research Climate Research Hydrologic Studies Integrated Assessment Adaptation Strategies Formal Planning Exercises Monitoring Infrastructure Water Management

Project Goals: Create climate change streamflow scenarios that cover the same period of record and are numerically consistent with the historic record of streamflows traditionally used in water planning studies. Make these streamflow scenarios freely available on the web for a large number of river locations to facilitate the incorporation of climate change information into existing water planning efforts in the PNW.

Bias Correction Objectives: Raw Bias Corrected Result: Bias corrected hydrologic simulations are quite consistent with observed streamflows in absolute value and climate change signals are translated without significant distortion.

Final Adjustment to Observed Data For an overlapping simulated and observed time series, apply monthly changes in bias corrected hydrologic simulations to observed streamflow record. Final Product

Overview of Preliminary Web-Based Data Archive http://www.ce.washington.edu/~hamleaf/climate_change_streamflows/CR_cc.htm

Planned Project Extensions Winter 2002-2003: Extend the number of sites to support specific planning and research activities at the UW, Northwest Power Planning Council, and Idaho Department of Water Resources. Longer Term: Extend the period of record of the data to 1928-1999. Extend the number of climate change scenarios.

Conclusions Water policy workshops (Skamania 2001) have highlighted the need to inject climate change information into existing river basin planning activities where possible and to provide access to free streamflow scenarios to help reduce costs. Water planning activities at many water management agencies tend to be strongly linked to internally developed planning tools driven by a particular period of observed streamflows. Our project produces “adjusted” realizations of the historic streamflow record based on simulations from a physically based hydrologic model driven by simple climate change scenarios. Such climate change “forecasts” can be used in a straight forward manner in water planning studies that currently use the observed record of streamflows for planning.