Clim2Power Climate impacts in the power sector in Europe Past Events and Analysis of Future Impacts

Past Events

Heat wave summer 2003 Meteorological reports cast summer of 2003 as France’s hottest in 50 years – Tmax >2ºC than those of the three prior recordholders (1976 with Tmax 27.1ºC, 1983 26.1ºC, 1994 with 26.3ºC) and the lowest observed temperature (16.5ºC) was 3.5ºC hotter than the average lowest daily temperatures Heightened energy demand and unfavourable environmental operating conditions (rivers too hot and water levels too low to assure cooling) Led EdF in August 2003 to request temporary exemption of agreed operating parameters for one-third of the French nuclear park (16 reactors out of 58) Nuclear power stations had to operate at a much reduced capacity, and EdF cut its power exports more than half French safety authority ASN (2004) considers that climatic situation could be repeated and recommended augmenting ventilation, installing air conditioning, and creation of monitoring and alert systems Fonte: ECEM_CS001_Winter2010a_v8_FINAL In Spain the cumulative electricity demand in August peaked nearly to 13% above the values for the previous year Poumadère et al.(2005). The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now. Risk Analysis (25)6. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00694.x; Añel et al (2017). Impact of Cold Waves and Heat Waves on the Energy Production Sector. Atmosphere (8) 209. http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/8/11/209

Cold Winter 2009/2010 Fonte: ECEM_CS001_Winter2010a_v8_FINAL Daily fluctuations in modelled weather-sensitive electricity demand. Normalised anomalies expressed as difference in percentage from the long-term average (1979-2016). Demand up to 25% higher due to cold weather. Temperature anomaly (ºC -differences from 1981-2010 mean) across Europe for winter 2009/10 – up to less 7ºC in Scandinavia https://demos.the-iea.org/ecem

Cold wave in Europe in Winter (Dec) 2016 & 2017 Large increase in electricity demand due to cold & lower than usual hydro and wind power Under national regulation authority request EdF had to stop several nuclear reactors to check components The total available generation capacity in France was significantly decreased. Electricity demand & power generation forecasts were then very important to assess the risks (FR and EU) France and Germany - EDF and EnBW Case study of the H2020 S2S4E project - https://s2s4e.eu/info/case-studies

High pressure system over central Europe in Summer (July) 2013 Large electricity demand & higher than usual solar PV with lower precipitation Periods of high solar radiation in DE may shift the energy mix and expensive conventional power plants may be shut down - with coal power plants typically used as a backup Downturn in the energy trading market Coal supply largely based on river navigability (associated with precipitation) - very low precipitation may restrict transportation on major waterways Germany - EnBW Case study of the H2020 S2S4E project - https://s2s4e.eu/info/case-studies

Flood in Sweden in Spring (June/July) 2015 Combined snowmelt and rain caused a lot of unproductive release of reservoir water in Umeälven river, Sweden Reservoir not managed appropriately – did not release enough water earlier – due to inaccurate hydrological forecasts that predicted a lot of remaining snow for melting In the first weeks of July, the melting runoff stopped due to low temperatures. However, there was still some snow available which flowed to the reservoir later The lack of accurate information about snow availability resulted in a significant economic loss for hydropower generators Sweden - Vattenfal Case study of the H2020 S2S4E project - https://s2s4e.eu/info/case-studies

Below normal wind power generation in 2016 Increase of the frequency of occurrence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) weather regime with negative impact on wind speed on southern + central EU Concurrently to the decrease of the frequency of the Atlantic ridge regime leading to a positive impact on wind speed + frequency of the other two regimes (NAO- and blocking) didn't deviate from the climatology value. Notable decrease of wind speed was observed through all central and southern Europe Such events can have a significant impact on the energy market Spain - EDPR and NNERGIX Case study of the H2020 S2S4E project - https://s2s4e.eu/info/case-studies

Other past events Past events Where Impact Companies Heat wave 2015, and other similar extremes Southern Europe Demand and thermal power plant cooling ENEL, ENEA Dry Winter 2015-16 and other similar extremes Northern Italy Hydroelectric power production ENEL, ENEA Alperia Extreme Winds 2014-15 and other similar extremes Spain Wind power production and balancing AWST, ENEL Strong Winds March 2016 and other similar extremes Southern Italy Wind power production Low Winds North Sea  Offshore operations TenneT Anomalous winter conditions UK Winter electricity demand National Grid Severe climate events in early fall and late spring months Offshore operations and maintenance planning Shell H2020 SECLI-firm project identified case studies - http://www.secli-firm.eu/events/

Analysis of Future Impacts

Impacts for different global warming scenarios, +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C Power sector fundamental for limiting climate warming below 2°C, or even 1.5°C - must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century BUT Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Study assesses the impacts of climate change on wind, solar PV, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe for different global warming scenarios, +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C (2043, 2059, 2084) . RESULTS climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies (limited for a 1.5°C warming, and roughly double for a 3°C warming.) Impacts are relatively limited for solar PV and wind power potential that may reduce up to 10%, hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20%. Impacts are more severe in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. higher share of RES could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change (intermittency of wind and PV remain a big challenge) Tobin et al (2018). Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming. Environ. Res. Lett. (13) 044024. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab211

Impacts for different global warming scenarios, +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C. Power generation change (%) In 2043, 2059, 2084 from 1971-2000 for the 3 climate scenarios Tobin et al (2018). Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming. Environ. Res. Lett. (13) 044024. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab211

Impacts for different global warming scenarios, +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C. Power generation change (%) Tobin et al (2018). Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming. Environ. Res. Lett. (13) 044024. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab211

Impacts of climate change and variability in Europe Increased ambient air temperatures will decrease the efficiency of thermal generating plants and reduce thermal electricity generation across Europe (2050-2100). Higher precipitation will be favourable to hydroelectricity generation in Northern Europe, but decreasing precipitation will reduce hydroelectricity generation in Southern Europe Systematic literature review of 57 papers (published 1997 to 2015), which consider the following criteria: with European coverage (as defined by the United Nations Statistics Division); (2) in peer-reviewed journals; (3) in English; and (4) focusing on the impacts of CV&C on electricity generation and networks in the near-, medium- and long-term (no reviews) Stanton et al (2016). A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe. Energy (109). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216305679?via%3Dihub

Impact on power demand Assess climate change impacts on electricity demand until 2100. “Future polarization of both peak load and electricity consumption in Europe”. Expected significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (∼3 to ∼7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (∼−6 to ∼−2% for Sweden and Norway) plus a shift of seasonal peak load from winter to summer for 19 countries Wenz et al (2017). North–south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming. PNAS (Aug). http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/08/22/1704339114

The future of transnational river basins in Iberia decreases in monthly, seasonal and annual discharges for all basins; especially for medium and low river flow, with all but one run showing future decreases. Magnitude of decreases varies significantly for different CMIP5 ensemble members. autumn shows the biggest decreases (reaching −61% for the Douro, −71% in the Tagus, and −92% for the Guadiana); reductions are consistently larger for the Guadiana. despite uncertainties in model projections, there is common behaviour with reductions in mean and especially in low discharges which will have important implications for water resources, populations, ecology and agriculture 1965-1990 2045-2070 Method 1 2045-2070 Method 2 Guerreiro et al (2017). Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in Iberia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies (12) 238-252. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458181630129X

More information Academic publications IEA - Making the energy sector more resilient to climate change https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/COP21_Resilience_Brochure.pdf World Energy Council - Climate Change: Implications for the Energy Sector https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Climate-Change-Implications-for-the-Energy-Sector-Summary-from-IPCC-AR5-2014-Full-report.pdf Asian Development Bank Climate Risk and Adaptation for the Electric Power Sector https://www.adb.org/publications/climate-risk-and-adaptation-electric-power-sector Academic publications Susceptibility of the European electricity sector to climate change https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213005471?via%3Dihub Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change. https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1546 The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10014

More on CLIM2POWER: https://clim2power.com/ sgcs@fct.unl.pt Project CLIM2POWER is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), BMBF (DE), BMWFW (AT), FCT (PT), EPA (IE), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462).