Blue arrow: IPCC projection

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Science Learning Centres / RCUK Stabilization wedges Dudley Shallcross and Tim Harrison Bristol University.
Advertisements

Climate Change and KS : Mitigation Charles W. Rice Soil Microbiologist Department of Agronomy Lead Author, IPCC AR4 WGIII K-State Research and Extension.
Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technology Robert Socolow Princeton University Princeton, NJ, USA.
Mitigating Climate Change
OPTIONS FOR ADDRESSING THE CO 2 PROBLEM How can we avoid doubling of CO 2 ? “Stabilization wedges”: Pacala and Sokolow (2004) DOE CDIAC.
5/16/2015The NEED Project: 30 Years of Energy Education1 The Basics of Climate Change.
Don’t Call It a Renaissance Until They’ve Shown You a Masterpiece
Temperature anomalies relative to 20 th Century Average Approximate pre-industrial temperature anomaly (~
Mitigating Climate Change
Tackling the Climate Problem with Existing Technologies
Carbon Storage Mitigating Climate Change? Will this work? Is it too late?
Carbon Storage Mitigating Climate Change? Will this work? Is it too late?
Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation IPCC WORKING GROUP 3.
© OECD/IEA ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Dolf Gielen Senior Energy Analyst International Energy Agency Energy.
Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies Stephen W. Pacala and Robert Socolow Science Vol. 305.
Can CCS Help Protect the Climate?. Key Points Climate Protection requires a budget limit on cumulative GHG emissions. Efficiency, Renewable Electric,
© OECD/IEA 2010 Cecilia Tam International Energy Agency Martin Taylor Nuclear Energy Agency The Role of Nuclear Energy in a Sustainable Energy Future Paris,
Policy and Technology for Living in a Greenhouse Robert Socolow Princeton University P8 Summit of trustees.
Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation
EU ETS & European Energy Market Dr Bill Kyte OBE Advisor, Sustainable Development, E.ON AG Chairman, UK Emissions Trading Group Ltd Chairman, Eurelectric.
Jobs in a Green Economy Rebuilding for a Low Carbon Future Bracken Hendricks, Senior Fellow Baltimore MD (07/21/09) Governor’s Workforce Investment Board.
Stabilization Wedges Tackling the Climate Problem with Existing Technologies This presentation is based on the “ Stabilization Wedges ” concept first presented.
Technologies of Climate Change Mitigation Climate Parliament Forum, May 26, 2011 Prof. Dr. Thomas Bruckner Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management.
Energy and Human Health Julia M Gohlke Environmental Systems Biology Group National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Research Triangle Park,
Stabilization Wedges A Concept and Game
Global Warming: Emissions Sources and Solutions J. Drake Hamilton Science Policy Director Fresh Energy October 17, 2015.
Clean Energy Solutions Milton L. Charlton Chief for Environment, Science, Technology and Health Affairs U.S. Embassy Seoul.
The Science and Economics of Climate Change Based on presentations by John Houghton of IPCC, Earthguage, the Met. Office and the Stern Review.
Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation Please read the following (available from class website) –“A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check” by Robert Socolow.
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Historical emissions Historical Emissions.
1 ZERO-EMISSION ENERGY PLANTS Dr. Robert ‘Bob’ Wright Senior Program Manager Office of Sequestration, Hydrogen and Clean Coal Fuels Office of Fossil Energy.
Johnthescone The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation Renewable Energy and Climate Change Youba SOKONA.
What is a renewable energy? -Resource that can be replenished rapidly through natural processes as long as it is not used up faster than it is replaced.
Mitigation at the Sector Level. Emissions by End Use End Use% % Road (cars, Trucks)9.9Cement3.8 Air1.6Other Industry5.0 Rail, Ship, Transport2.3Transmission.
CLIMATE CHANGE & POPULATION Ian Lowe. GEO4: “Unprecedented environmental change at global and regional levels” Increasing global average temperatures,
Sustainable Energy Foundation of Sustainable Living Santa Cruz, CA Thursday 2006 July 27 7:00pm Ron Swenson.
Emerging Policy & Technical Solutions Andrew E. Huemmler University of Pennsylvania May 5, 2008 The Academy of Natural Sciences Partnership for the Delaware.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE The Energy Mix for a Sustainable Future Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy.
Carbon Sequestration A Strategic Element in Clean Coal Technology Presentation to: Mid-America Regulatory Conference (MARC) Columbus, Ohio, June 20, 2006.
1 PNNL-SA The Role of Technology in a Low- carbon Society Selected Key Findings from the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Jae Edmonds February.
Climate Change Policies: The Road to Copenhagen Dr Robert K. Dixon.
Princeton University CMI: The idea of Stabilization Wedges
Laura Cozzi Helsinki, 23 November 2016
Human Impacts and Responses
Climate Stabilization and the Wedge Solution
International Renewable Energy Agency
I’m Not a Warmist! Engaging Hostile Audiences about Climate Change
Post 2035: Fossil Emissions and the Paris Agreement
Taking Action to Limit Climate Change
Climate Change Solutions
Climate Stabilization and the Wedge Solution
U.S. Society for Ecological Economics
Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Climate Change Solutions
Historical Emissions Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16
The Wedge Game Developed by: Rob Socolow and Steve Pacala
Solution 2: Carbon Capture Storage
I’m Not a Warmist! Engaging Hostile Audiences about Climate Change
Options for addressing the CO2 problem
Dudley Shallcross and Tim Harrison Bristol University
Introduction to Climate Change
Spencer Dale Group chief economist.
Mitigation and Adaptation
The Unexpected Benefits of Climate Action
2.6 How can we reduce the impacts of climate change?
Stabilization Wedges: Mitigation Tools for the Next Half-Century Robert Socolow Princeton University World Bank Washington, DC.
BP China Management 120.
2006 Energy Consumption By Sector * Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Biomass Hydro Nuclear Other Electric Power Sector**
GLOBAL EFFECTS.
Presentation transcript:

Blue arrow: IPCC projection B1 scenario: to stabilize CO2 concentrations, we need to reduce the rate of CO2 emissions Blue arrow: IPCC projection

How do we get from 13% renewables to 80% within 4 decades? Invest ~1% of global GDP Boost existing growth: of 300 gigawatts of new electrical generation capacity added between 2008 - 2009, ~140 GW from renewable sources Renewable production rate increase by 20x Science in Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation agreed to by all nations Policy on renewable energy set at next major climate conference, COP17, in South Africa in December.

Where does this line go next? Historical Emissions Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 Historical emissions 8 Where does this line go next? 1950 2000 2050 2100 3

Developed countries have emitted the most, but the growth is fastest in developing world

Cut out the future growth as a “Stabilization Triangle” Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 Current path = “ramp” Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal Historical emissions 8 Flat path 1.6 1950 2000 2050 2100 5

Stabilization Triangle Harmful climate impacts at “easy” target Still experience change at “tough” target Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Easier CO2 target 16 Current path = “ramp” ~850 ppm Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal 8 Historical emissions Flat path Tougher CO2 target ~500 ppm 1.6 1950 2000 2050 2100 6

Slice up the stabilization triangle into “wedges” Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 Current path = “ramp” 16 GtC/y Eight “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today Historical emissions 8 Flat path 1.6 1950 2000 2050 2100 7

What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The technology is here: these strategies have already been scaled up viably somewhere. 1 GtC/yr Total = 25 Gigatons carbon 50 years Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. If there is a price on carbon of $100/tC this is $2.5 trillion.

Socolow & Pacala describe 15 existing wedges each to reduce carbon by 1 Gt/yr by 2050 Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) 16 GtC/y Fuel Switching (1) Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Stabilization Stabilization Triangle Triangle CO2 Capture & Storage (3) 8 GtC/y Forest and Soil Storage (2) 2007 2057 Nuclear Fission (1) What does a wedge look like? 9

Efficiency Coal: 25% global emissions Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled Double efficiency of coal-based electricity (better turbines, fuel cells) Use best practices in all residential and commercial buildings E, T, H / $ “E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Sector s affected: E = Electricity, T = Transport, H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$ Replace all incandescent bulbs with CFLs = 1/4 of a wedge

Fuel Switching Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey). “E,H” = can be applied to electric or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Effort needed for 1 wedge: Build 1400 GW of capacity powered by natural gas instead of coal (60% of current fossil fuel electric capacity) Requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today So a slice is 50 LNG tanker discharges/day by 2054 @200,000 m3/tanker, or one new “Alaska” pipeline/year @ 4 Bscfd. Detailed Description: NATURAL GAS TURBINES ARE BEING DEVELOPED TO PRODUCE ELECTRICITY IN A SIMPLE, LOW COST ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY WAY. DOE'S NATIONAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY (NETL) INITIATED THE ADVANCED TURBINE SYSTEMS (ATS) PROGRAM AND HAS PARTNERED WITH INDUSTRY TO PRODUCE A NEW GENERATION OF HIGH EFFICIENCY GAS TURBINES FOR CENTRAL STATION ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, USING CLEAN BURNING NATURAL GAS. 700 1-GW baseload coal plants (5400 TWh/y) emit 1 GtC/y. Natural gas: 1 GtC/y = 190 Bscfd Yr 2000 electricity: Coal : 6000 TWh/y; Natural gas: 2700 TWh/y. A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today E, H / $ E = Electricity, T = Transport, H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Implement CCS at 800 GW coal electric plants or 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or 180 coal synfuels plants or 10 times today’s capacity of hydrogen plants “E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500. E, T, H / $$ E = Electricity, T = Transport, H = Heat Cost scale of $ to $$$

Fertilization? Atmocean commercial proposol to pump nutrients to the surface, where the sunlight is. “As with any human manipulation of the environment, ocean iron fertilization carries potential risks, as well as potential benefits; moving forward on (iron fertilization) should only be done if society is willing to acknowledge explicitly that it will result in alteration of ocean ecosystems and that some of the consequences may be unforeseen.” - Buesseler et al., 2008, Science

CCS requires carbon audits to verify Permanence Does carbon removed stay out of the atmosphere for 100 + years? Does project reduce CO2 beyond what would have happened any way? Additionality Monitoring Can regulators really measure how effective carbon storage is? Leakage Does storage cause no harm?

Nuclear Electricity Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055 Graphic courtesy of NRC “E” = can be applied to electric sector, $$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Plutonium (Pu) production by 2054, if fuel cycles are unchanged: 4000 t Pu (and another 4000 t Pu if current capacity is continued). Compare with ~ 1000 t Pu in all current spent fuel, ~ 100 t Pu in all U.S. weapons. 5 kg ~ Pu critical mass. The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990. E/ $$

Wind Electricity Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity, Combined area ~ size of Germany (land could be dual purpose: agriculture?) “E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $-$$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Photo courtesy of DOE A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by 30x E, T, H / $-$$

Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program Solar Electricity Install 20,000 square km (size of New Jersey) by 2054 Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program “E” = can be applied to electric sector, $$$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) A wedge of solar electricity = increasing current capacity 700x E / $$$

Biofuels: “Borrowed Carbon” Scale up current global ethanol production 30x Photo courtesy of NREL “T, H” = can be applied to transport or heating sectors, $$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops T, H / $$

Natural Sinks Eliminate tropical deforestation OR Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S. Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha) Natural Sinks “B” = biostorage sector, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) B / $ Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO

If we can do it, should we? If so, how? In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs

We may have to.. Peak oil? IEA World Energy Outlook - Nov 2008 1999 2004 IEA World Energy Outlook - Nov 2008 “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable — environmentally, economically, socially. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution.” 21