CLIMO EXERCISE LONG-TERM AVERAGES

NORMAL Mean: 80 Median: Range: 89-67 Std. dev. 6 Mean: 0.09” Median: % time: 0.09” 0-0.54” 50% NORMAL Conforming to a standard; usual, typical, or expected.

FORECAST TECHNIQUES (TMP) CLIMO = 80F PERSISTENCE = ?

FORECAST TECHNIQUES (TMP) CLIMO = 80F PERSISTENCE (YESTERDAY) = 74 MODIFIED PERSISTENCE …..

Modified Persistence What causes temperature to change? Sunshine?

WAYS EARTH HEATS AIR? SUN HEATS GROUND

Modified Persistence What causes temperature to change? Sunshine? Precipitation? Wind?

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat IR – Sat V – Sat V – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – SPC – Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

STATION MODEL PLOT – SURFACE OBS VALID: 10Z (6AM)

STATION MODEL PLOT – SURFACE OBS VALID: 10Z (6AM)

SURFACE PRESSURE ? ? ? ? ?

SURFACE PRESSURE

Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector MARITIME TROPICAL/CONTINENTAL TROPICAL MARITIME POLAR/CONTINENTAL POLAR

NAM MODEL FCST – 4 panel map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) TODAY

NAM MODEL FCST – SFC Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) TODAY ? PA

L H PA NAM MODEL FCST – 500 mb. Valid 2 P.M. (18z) TODAY Ridge Axis Trough Axis H

LIFTED INDEX Valid 8 P.M. TODAY

MODEL PREDICTED RAIN THROUGH 00Z (8PM) NAM GFS

SURFACE PRESSURE ? ? ? ? ?

SURFACE PRESSURE

Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector

MOS – Model Output S … Accu Friends Wx Channel Friends NWS Friends

Big Picture …. Then details  Soundings ? Model soundings Other fun output Meteograms

Big Picture …. Then details  Temps + Clouds Soundings – What are these? Model soundings Other fun output Meteograms

Basic Forecast Guidelines What causes rain? Need clouds! Will any ole cloud do? Moisture Bodies of water – Moisture content of air

Basic Forecast Guidelines Extrapolation= Look upstream to see what’s coming! Sat IR - Sat II - Sat VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

Basic Forecast Guidelines The “Models” What are they? Lower Res. (GFS) Higher Res. (GFS) Higher Res. (NAM) Higher Res. (HRRR) MOS - Statistical guidance

Cloud top Height ? (50,000 ft. 20,000 ft.) -15C -10C -15C

Know what to expect! = Climo. AH RH AL RL Know what to expect! = Climo.