Yuri Rykov, Vladimir Feygin GAC scenario Workshop in combination with WHERE GLOBAL SCENARIO FIELD IS MOVING – WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE GAS IN EU TRENDS Yuri Rykov, Vladimir Feygin GAC scenario Workshop in combination with the meeting of the EU-Russia Energy Dialogue subgroup on scenarios and forecasts May 14, 2013 Brussels

PRESENTATION PLAN New realities in the world of energy. The change from forecasts to scenarios fields Scenarios fields, systematic approach. Possible blueprint for analysis and building Scenarios on primary energy supply in the World Scenarios on gas supply in the EU and in the World What are the problems and possible way further?

NEW REALITIES IN THE WORLD OF ENERGY Globalization via complication and technologies development Variety of primary energy sources, necessity to consider subdivisions. For example, gas: conventional, shale, coalbed, tight, hydrates (New Lens Scenarios by Shell) Influence of energy sources to each other, examples: Shale gas -> coal export in EU -> reduction in conv. gas Shale gas -> gas in transport -> tech. influence -> increase in conv. gas Virginia Tech. success in hydrogen production -> reduction in oil and possibly gas Permanent change of hydrocarbon reserves map, examples: USA shale gas & oil Japan reserves of methane hydrates Israel reserves of oil shales and offshore gas

FROM THE FORECASTS TO SCENARIOS FIELDS Energy picture in the future will become more and more interweaved, with high level of interdependence It will become more and more difficult in the future to speak separately about the “developments” of energy sources – thus the analysis in complex is necessary Scenarios fields analysis and building is the way to assess the variety and uncertainties Permanent monitoring is the way to deal with the variety of scenarios paths caused by scenarios fields

HOW THE BLUEPRINT FOR SCENARIOS FIELDS COULD BE VISUALISED (1) 1. Define the energy map for the WORLD, REGION, COUNTRY / SECTORS RESOURSES EXTRACTION PRIMARY ENERGY SECONDARY ENERGY FINAL ENERGY USEFUL ENERGY TOTAL COAL Biomass/Waste solids Traditional biomass OIL Biofuel NGL GAS Biomass gasified NUCLEAR RES Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Others HYDROGEN

HOW THE BLUEPRINT FOR SCENARIOS FIELDS COULD BE VISUALISED (2) 2. Define the possible bifurcation points in the future ENERGY MAP Stages of energy transformation Types of primary energy Time Technological breakthroughs Political decisions Environmental issues … POSSIBLE BIFURCATION POINTS IMPORATNT PROBLEM: There is a lack of enough published balances and technological data

SOME WORLD ENERGY TENDENCIES. PRIMARY ENERGY Shell – to 2050 IEA – to 2035 ExxonMobil – to 2040 BP – to 2030

SOME WORLD ENERGY TENDENCIES. PRIMARY ENERGY SHARES 2030

SOME WORLD ENERGY TENDENCIES. FINAL ENERGY IEA – to 2035 ExxonMobil – to 2040 Shell - Bifurcation point is passed Low PED scenarios: 450, fossils -> nucl.+RES – UNLIKELY Shell, IEA – Bifurcation point ~2020 High PED scenarios: Oceans, CPS, oil -> coal Exxon - Bifurcation point ~ 2025 Medium PED scenarios: Exxon, BP, Mountains, NPS, oil (Exxon coal) -> gas

SOME WORLD ENERGY TENDENCIES. CO2 EMISSIONS Shell – to 2050 IEA – to 2035 ExxonMobil – to 2040 CO2 emissions could be good indicator of Bifurcation points

TENDENCIES IN WORLD GAS DEMAND Shell – to 2050 IEA – to 2035 11 ExxonMobil – to 2040 BP – to 2030

WORLD ENERGY RATES OF GROWTH 2030 TPED 12 COAL OIL GAS

EU ENERGY ROADMAP 2050 SCENARIOS Mtoe 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CPI GIC 1723 1752 1700 1629 1618 1615 Gas 393 443 372 369 364 354 EE 1753 1644 1452 1269 1084 365 348 315 257 HR 1679 1510 1317 1134 382 286 210

EU 2020 AND 2030 PRIMARY ENERGY SHARES

IEA. PROJECTIONS OF EU GAS DEMAND

PROJECTIONS OF EU GAS DEMAND. IEA & ExxonMobil EU gas demand is projected to ~ 550 mtoe in 2035-40

IEA. PROJECTIONS OF EU GAS FINAL CONSUMPTION

IEA. COMPARISON OF EU & WORLD GAS FINAL CONSUMPTION EU looks as having more high electricity share than the world

IEA. PROJECTIONS OF EU CO2 EMISSIONS FROM GAS

EU ENERGY RATES OF GROWTH TPED COAL GAS OIL RES NUCLEAR

POSSIBLE OBSERVATIONS FROM SCENARIOS ANALYSIS The world comes to the path when new technologies tend to introduce rather new types of primary sources then to increase efficiency There is a bifurcation point ~2020 when the switching to scenario type “Oceans” is possible with the reduction of gas prospects Another bifurcation point (~2025) is the possibility to realize Exxon scenario when oil’s share will be preserved, but gas prospects does not change World trend is to increase the demand of primary energy and to more usage of natural gas – most dynamic PES CO2 question is still pending (future bifurcation point)

CONCLUSIONS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS PERFORMING Data analysis could give quantitative assessment to the processes of world energy evolution Overtly published data are not enough Scenarios method could include Determining bifurcation points Calculation of MANY variants with respect of this structure – MAP of possibilities Constant monitoring in order to reduce variety To fulfill such activity it seems necessary to organize specialized body

INTERNET PORTAL AS THE INSTRUMENT FOR SCENARIOS ANALYSIS My queries Scenarios and forecasts Demand/ Consumption Production Balance Prices Trade Macroeconomics View & edit scenarios data Forum

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