Quarterly GDP at t+30 days for EU and euro area WG 'European Statistical Data Support' Luxembourg, 21 April 2016 Hans Wouters - Eurostat WG ESDS - 21/4/16

Content Background Why introduce GDP t+30 estimates? Results GDP t+30 project Quality criteria Test estimations Communication WG ESDS - 21/4/16

1. Background (1) 22-23 May 2013: Eurostat National Accounts Working Group decided to establish GDP t+30 TF Purpose: assess feasibility of producing GDP flash estimates at t+30 days for EA and EU Start of work June 2013, finalisation by end-2015 WG ESDS - 21/4/16

1. Background (2) Participation: BG, CZ, DE, FI, FR, HU, IT, LT, LV, NL, PL, PT, RO, SI, UK, CH, ECB (+ ESTAT and CE staff) Organised and chaired by ESTAT 2 meetings per year Support of a contractor – Cambridge Econometrics WG ESDS - 21/4/16

2. Why introduce GDP t+30 estimates? Development in official statistics User needs Key users – European Commission, European Central Banks Policy making Monitoring economic situation Forecasting Other users Logical next step after GDP t+45 estimates Fits in release pattern Principal European Economic Indicators Releases at 30 – 60 – 90 days WG ESDS - 21/4/16

3. Results GDP t+30 project (1) Sharing country experiences and best practices with national GDP t+30 estimations Development of guidance document on (national) methods and estimation techniques Guidance for non-experienced Member States Development of quality acceptance criteria For assessment test results WG ESDS - 21/4/16

3. Results GDP t+30 project (2) Preparation of test estimates Development of estimation methodology for the EA/EU GDP t+30 estimates Use in test and regular GDP t+30 estimates Development of a communication plan WG ESDS - 21/4/16

4. Quality acceptance criteria (1) Purpose Assessment of test estimates Quality criteria Unbiased GDP t+30 estimate Average revision between -0.05 and +0.05 ppt Max 67% revision in the same direction WG ESDS - 21/4/16

4. Quality acceptance criteria (2) Quality criteria (continued) Limited average absolute revision Max 0.10 ppt at t+45 Max 0.13 ppt at t+60 Sufficient coverage 70% GDP for 2015 test quarters Availability communication plan WG ESDS - 21/4/16

5. Test estimations (1) Purpose To assess expected quality of future GDP t+30 estimates Test quarters Real time estimations for 2014Q1-2015Q4 Retrospective estimations for 2012Q1-2013Q4 WG ESDS - 21/4/16

5. Test estimations (2) Conclusions Successfully passing all a priori quality criteria Better than market forecasts at t+30 (tested for real-time quarters) Smaller revisions than the published GDP t+30 for the US But: revisions t+30  t+45 will be larger than revisions t+45  t+60 WG ESDS - 21/4/16

6. Communication (1) Key messages Introduction GDP t+30 on 29 April 2016, next publication dates: 29/7, 31/10 Name: preliminary GDP flash estimate GDP t+45 estimates will remain Trade-off between timeliness and accuracy Country data will be kept confidential Several background document will be made available WG ESDS - 21/4/16

6. Communication (2) All details available for TF, NAWG and DMES during the whole project Communication to main users about headlines after decision in December 2015 Centralised communication via Eurostat WG ESDS - 21/4/16

6. Communication (3) Full information including background information available for all users at/after first release April '16 Methodogical working papers on: Methods and techniques for national GDP t+30 estimations Eurostat estimation procedure Article in Eurona, other economic journals (?) Presentations in meetings and conferences F.e. IARIW in August 2016 Organisation webinar (?) WG ESDS - 21/4/16

Quarterly GDP at t+30 days for EU and euro area WG 'European Statistical Data Support' Luxembourg, 21 April 2016 Hans Wouters - Eurostat WG ESDS - 21/4/16