EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION, v.2.0 March 16, 2011 “Dissent is the highest form of patriotism.” Anon. © 2011: Ahmad F Ghais, Ph.D.

EMOTIONAL VIDEO CLIPS http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HGfFyqJMrk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xccPG4fFNjg

QUESTIONS Is the Egyptian uprising genuine? What are its underlying causes? Who is behind it? What are its demands?  Who holds power in Egypt? Who opposes the uprising? What are its implications for rest of world? How does it relate to islamist extremism? What is the Muslim Brotherhood? Terrorist organization? What is US interest in Egypt? How should US policy adapt to new Egyptian reality? What are likely outcomes of the uprising?

SEMINARS Muslims and Arabs: Origins of Islamist Extremism Islam, Islamism, fundamentalism, extremism, terrorism? Muslim/Arab History: Primer for infidels, heathens & unbelievers Palestine and the Arab/Israeli dispute Egyptian Revolution, v.2.0

AN EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION? Grassroots movement for democracy Patriotic, secular not islamist nor pan-Arab Unanticipated, long time coming New e-literate generation Intelligentsia, disenfranchised, oppressed Have-nots

Lack of civil liberties, rights CAUSES Autocratic regime Political oppression Lack of civil liberties, rights Poverty Lack of opportunity Corruption

DEMANDS Democracy now Mubarak resign Regime change Constitutional reform Freedom of information Bread!

POWER IN EGYPT Autocratic constitution Powerful president Weak parliament National Democratic Party (NDP) The military!

THE MILITARY Anchors regime since 1952 Privileged officer class, conscripts Regular police State Security Police, recruits

WHO OPPOSES THE UPRISING? 5000 years of allegiance The military NDP Vested interests: haves vs have-nots Arab potentates Israel USA?

IMPLICATIONS Demonstration effect, but local conditions Opposition to US policy Islamism Autocracies: Jordan, Yemen, Syria, Algeria, Saudi, etc. Camp David Treaty Diminishes AlQaida’s message

MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD Font of Islamist fundamentalism:1928 Promotes social reform Grassroots: universities, syndicates, have-nots Opposes: British rule, secularism, US policy Bred extremists Outlawed off and on Renounces violence in ‘70s Terrorist or patriotic?

US INTERESTS “War on Terror” Pathway to Iraq and Afghanistan Access to oil Israel’s security Ideals: liberty, justice, human rights

ECHOES OF AMERICA Declaration of Independence; Bill of Rights Tea parties 1 and 2 “Give me liberty, or give me death” Civil disobedience: “We shall overcome” Circling the wagons

BACKGROUND: OBAMA’S SPEECH http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-cairo-university-6-04-09

US POLICY US aid: military, civilian Military ties “Orderly transition” Muddled, short-sighted, hypocritical The devil you know? “Our SOB” Living up to our ideals “Bug out”

OUTCOMES Is Egypt ready for democracy? Mubarak is finished; is regime finished? Muddle along: Military remain king-makers Best case: secular, inclusive governance Back to barracks Worst case: Rise of islamist extremism Irrelevancies: Israel, Iran