KCTCS Enrollment Trends KCTCS Board of Regents September 2016

Overview External Factors That Contribute to Community and Technical College Enrollment Nationwide Unemployment Rate High School Graduates Population Upskilling the Workforce Preliminary Fall 2016 Enrollment

National Picture – Enrollment Declines KCTCS has followed a similar trend though our enrollment peaked in Fall 2011 (vs. Fall 2010 nationally). KCTCS enrollment has declined by 26% since our peak. Credential-seeking enrollment: -22%. Non-credential for-credit workforce training: -33%. High school enrollment: -38%.

National Picture – Unemployment Trend Unemployment peaked at 9.9% nationwide in the 4th quarter of 2009. In Kentucky, the peak came a quarter earlier 10.8% in the 3rd quarter of 2009.

National Picture – Impact of Falling Unemployment Adult Learners at KCTCS Credential-seeking: -31%. Compared to a decline of 14% for those aged 24 and under. Non-credential for-credit workforce training: -43%. Compared to an increase of 30% for those aged 24 and under.

National Picture – High School Graduates Kentucky reflects the national trends. Peaked in 2010 Projected 5% decline between 2010-2020.

State Picture – Preliminary Projections

State Picture – Preliminary Projections

State Picture – Education Requirements Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce projects 62% of jobs in Kentucky will require a postsecondary education by 2020. Some college/associate’s degree/postsecondary vocational certificate: 33% Bachelor’s degree: 20% Master’s degree or above: 8% At 54%, Kentucky’s current average attainment levels fall below those required for the jobs of the future.

State Picture – Alignment with Workforce Needs

Previous year comparison is derived from the previous year’s weekly enrollment report that fell closest to the current day being reviewed.

CPE Official Fall 2015 = 80,075 Previous year comparison is derived from the previous year’s weekly enrollment report that fell closest to the current day being reviewed. Source: KCTCS Student Records and Prior YTD from Weekly Enrollment Report Report Updated: 9/9/2016 Compiled by: KCTCS ORPA

Fall 2016 Enrollment YTD (9/9/16) Fall 2015 Official Fall 2015 YTD Fall 2016 YTD Source: KCTCS Student Records, 09-9-16 Source: Prior YTD from Weekly Enrollment Report, 09-11-15 Compiled by: KCTCS ORPA

Previous year comparison is derived from the previous year’s weekly enrollment report that fell closest to the current day being reviewed. Source: KCTCS Student Records and Prior YTD from Weekly Enrollment Report Report Updated: 9/9/2016 Compiled by: KCTCS ORPA

Fall 2016 FTE Enrollment YTD (9/9/16) Fall 2016 Goal Fall 2015 Official Fall 2015 YTD Fall 2016 YTD Source: KCTCS Student Records, 09-9-16 Source: Prior YTD from Weekly Enrollment Report, 09-11-15 Compiled by: KCTCS ORPA Note: Based on enrollment in classes by home college