Informative support for decision-making - manifested in each managerial activity - the principle is a choice from more alternatives

Exercise and meaning of decision-making Reasons of intuitive decision-making unknown principle problem unknown ambitions and criteria absence time unpopularity of systematic methods lack of necessary information abundance

Models of decision-making Rational economic model optimization principle Administrative model satisfaction principle

Rational process of resolution of decision-making problems Identification of a decision-making problem Analysis and formulation of a problem Assessment criterions selection Variants creation Appreciation of variants and choice of the most suitable Realization of acceptable variant Controlling results of realized variant

Types of decision-making problems and situations Right and wrong structured problems Decision-making under certainty, risk and uncertainty Static and dynamic decision-making Decision-making with and without conflict

Bad structured problem The global crisis continues, find the way to be profitable. Find new product to our customers. Excercise Také a sheet of paper. Do a hole into it and go through without total destruction of the paper.

Excercise A B C D What price reduction can you get? The order above 100 000 CZk – reduction 5 % Private taking – reduction 5 % Local office – reduction 8 % Create the communication chart A B C D

The final communication chart >100 000 (5 %) N Y Private taking (5 %) Local office (8 %) Price reduction 0 % 5 % 8 % 10 % 13 % 18 %

Dynamic decision making process Little Red Riding Hood meeting with the wolf Did he see myself? N Y N Y Let me alone Is it hungry? N Does it hear me? Let me alone N Does it attack me? Let me alone Y Y N … Do I win? …

Static decision making Choose the suitable car for yourself. This problem can be bad structured but the solution is available in one step (if you know enough criterions and variants).

Competitors point of view The previous example was non-conflict. Our solution is independent to actions other people. Conflict decision making What event will we visit? We have a couple. The man want to go to hockey, the woman to the theatre. who/what Hockey together Theatre together to be at home alone He 5 3 1 She

Information for decision-making Primary source Secondary source Provision of efficient collection of information setting range of information right interpretation of information

A membrane company needs to choose one of fairs to realize an exhibition. It doesn’t have enough money to send representatives to all three fairs. Choose (calculate) the best option by the method of weight classification from data in the table. The criterions are ordered from the most to the less important: Criterion Options O 1 O 2 O 3 C 1 – costs (€) 250 300 500 C 2 – experiences (realized fairs) 7 2 1 C 3 – distance (km) 380 120 105 C 4 – potential of market (customers) 400 750 600

Decision-making´s methods under certainty One criterion Collection of criteria Methods of assessment scale criteria

Decision-making under risk and uncertainty Decision-making´s matrix Probability p1 … pi pn S1 Si Sn A1 U11 U1i U1n AJ Uj1 Uji Ujn AM Um1 Umi Umn

Rules of decision-making under risk rule of expected mean value Ej = Uji*pi rule of expected mean value of variance D(z) = (zi – E(z))2*pi

Rules of decision-making under uncertainty Rule of minimax Rule of maximax Laplace´s rule Hurwitz´s rule Savage´s rule

Selecting the best alternative The company wants to introduce a new product. The presumptive revenues are depended on time how long will be the company in the market alone. With the rules for deciding in condition of uncertainty choose the best from the three variants. probability of variants 0.25 0.50 price \ time to be alone in a market 1 year alone 1.5 year alone 2 years alone low 3.2 3.3 middle 3.1 3.5 4.0 high 2.4 4.4

Rules 0.25 0.5 wc1 wc2 wc3 minimax maximax laplace hurwicz v1 3.2 3.3 average v1 3.2 3.3 3.27 3.26 3.275 v2 3.1 3.5 4 3.53 3.64 3.525 v3 2.4 4.4 3.43 3.6 3.45 max loss matrix wc1 wc2 wc3 max. loss v1 0.2 1.1 v2 0.1 0.4 v3 0.8

Methods for support decision-making Decision-making´s tablets Models Simulation

Team´s resolution of problems Bleachers of constructive thinking conservatism apprehensions prejudices Brainstorming Method 6.3.5

Brainstorming - requirements Quantity is more than quality ! No criticism All members are equipollent Group – heterogeneousness age, sex, experiences, knowledge …