Repeat migrations in Spain: an approximation to its determinants (Preliminary results) Mónica Martí y Carmen Ródenas Dpto. Análisis Económico Aplicado Instituto Universitario de Desarrollo y Paz

To investigate the reasons which lead immigrants to carrying out repeat internal migrations in Spain Aim: To find out whether or not the facts support some of the different hypothesis about the reasons for this phenomenon ¿How? By using a multinomial probit and a binary logit model to estimate the probability of repeat migrations for migrants

Outline: The causes for the repeat migrations Data and used variables in the estimations Brief description of the used econometric specifications Results Conclusions

1. The causes for repeat migrations Disappointment hypothesis Process of optimization Life cycle context (personal events) Decisions not taken by the immigrant or his family To getting administrative benefits (false migrations) Ejemplos

Migrations for migrants 2. The EVR microdata Migrants and migrations, EVR 2003-05 Migrations for migrants Migrants % Migrations 1 5.128.437 89,81 80,55 2 514.960 9,02 1.029.920 16,18 3 58.726 1,03 176.178 2,77 4 7.085 0,12 28.340 0,45 5 725 0,01 3.625 0,06 6 96 0,00 576 7 14 8 Total 5.710.032 100 6.367.098 In 2004, 25, 87% of movements are made by migrants who had already moved in 2003 or who would go on to move again in 2004 or 2005.

32 months later We are going to estimate the probability of repeat migrations for migrants After a first migration, a migrant can: Not move again Do an onward move (ABC) Do a return move (ABA) Migrants who come from abroad Migrants who come from the interior Smaller sample 1/1/2003 36 31/12/2005 Time interval 33 18 4 Short observation period: bigger sample but unbalanced Long observation period: smaller sample but balanced

Sample size (32 months) Total Not move again onward return Comes from the interior All 828.096 Spaniards 662.601 Foreigners 165.495 48,3% 50,2% 41,1% 25,2% 22,2% 37,3% 26,5% 27,7% 21,6% Comes from abroad All 265.433 Spaniards 24.794 Foreigners 240.639 54,6% 70,2% 53,0% 45,4% 29,8% 47,0% - Total migrants All 1.093.529 Spaniards 62,86% Foreigners 37,14%

Sex Interior Abroad Female Male All Not move again Return Onward 48,8 51,0 46,9 51,2 49,0 53,1 48,5 46,0 51,5 54,0 Spaniards 49,5 52,1 49,1 50,5 47,9 50,9 49,6 47,6 50,4 52,4 Foreigners 45,5 45,6 41,6 54,5 54,4 58,4 48,4 45,9 51,6 54,1

Age Interior 0-5 6-18 19-22 23-39 40-48 49 y + All Not move again Return Onward 6,9 8,7 7,0 10,6 11,5 9,6 4,0 7,4 5,6 47,0 46,4 57,5 12,6 10,8 11,0 18,9 15,2 9,3 Spaniards 7,5 9,7 8,9 11,9 10,3 3,9 5,4 44,9 43,8 54,7 12,2 10,0 20,8 16,9 10,7 Foreigners 4,1 3,6 2,6 9,8 7,8 4,9 6,1 56,9 59,5 64,3 14,5 13,7 13,4 6,6 5,8

Age Abroad 0-5 6-18 19-22 23-39 40-48 49 y + All Not move again Onward 4,7 4,3 14,6 11,1 7,4 10,3 44,4 56,1 11,3 17,6 7,1 Spaniards 6,1 9,7 8,5 10,4 5,6 38,4 41,9 12,0 31,3 20,5 Foreigners 4,5 3,9 15,5 7,8 10,7 45,3 57,0 15,7 6,2

Previous migration to the first one on record Interior Yes No All Not move again Return Onward 71,5 64,1 80,0 28,5 35,9 20,0 Spaniards 65,9 57,3 71,9 34,1 42,7 28,1 Foreigners 98,6 98,5 99,3 1,4 1,5 0,7

HDI of the origin country IDH<0,5 0,75>IDH0,5 0,9>IDH0,75 IDH0,9 Foreigners come from the interior Not move again Return Onward 3,6 3,4 4,8 21,3 25,0 28,0 61,9 66,7 60,9 13,1 4,9 6,3 Foreigners come from abroad 2,3 4,3 15,2 27,1 63,1 59,7 19,4 8,9

Type of the first movement Interior Intra-provincial Inter-provincial All Not move again Return Onward 64,6 54,3 45,1 35,4 45,7 54,9 Spaniards 65,9 54,7 45,8 34,1 45,3 54,2 Foreigners 58,5 52,5 43,4 41,5 47,5 56,6

Island Interior Abroad No island All Not move again Return Onward 7,8 10,9 10,5 92,2 89,1 89,5 9,1 - 6,8 90,9 93,2 Spaniards 7,5 11,4 11,5 92,5 88,6 88,5 10,3 13,5 89,7 86,5 Foreigners 9,0 8,7 8,2 91,0 91,3 91,8 6,4 93,6

Municipality size (thousands of persons) Interior -10 10-20 20-50 50-100 +100 P.capital All Not move again Return Onward 29,3 27,6 25,3 13,3 13,6 15,7 16,1 16,5 10,7 11,5 11,7 8,3 9,2 22,7 23,2 23,7 Spaniards 31,3 29,2 27,0 13,5 14,0 15,5 16,0 16,6 10,1 11,3 7,4 6,9 7,6 22,0 23,0 23,5 Foreigners 19,0 19,1 21,3 11,9 12,0 12,8 16,2 13,4 12,4 12,5 15,0 13,2 26,6 24,5 24,1

Municipality size (thousands of persons) Abroad -10 10-20 20-50 50-100 +100 P.capital All Not move again Return 15,6 19,9 10,6 11,3 15,3 15,1 12,1 11,8 10,2 11,2 36,2 30,7 Spaniards 19,4 10,3 11,5 13,0 14,7 10,4 12,0 7,3 9,1 39,5 32,8 Foreigners 12,3 35,7 30,6

Labour market dynamics Socioeconomic Dimension Province of the first destination (PCA) Interior (mean) Economic Weight Standard of living Labour market dynamics Productivity Growth All Not move again Return Onward 2,0 1,9 2,1 0,5 0,7 0,2 -0,1 Spaniards 1,7 0,4 0,6 0,1 Foreigners 2,6 2,4 1,0 0,9 0,3 -0,2

Labour market dynamics Socioeconomic Dimension Province of the first destination (PCA) Abroad (mean) Economic Weight Standard of living Labour market dynamics Productivity Growth All Not move again Onward 2,6 2,5 1,0 0,4 0,3 -0,2 Spaniards 2,3 2,2 0,5 0,0 -0,1 Foreigners 2,9 2,7 0,9 0,6

3.- Econometric specification The statistic specification can be motivated as discrete-choice models in which a person maximizes her utility: So, the probability of alternative j being chosen is:

Migrants who come from abroad (binary choice model) We can fit a binary logit model, assuming that the error terms have a logistic distribution (j= 0, 1); (i=1,…,n) Migrants who come from the interior (multinomial choice model) We can fit a multinomial probit model Where  is the standard normal cdf, j= 0, 1, 2 ; i=1,…,n

Hausman-McFadden test of Independence of Irrelevant alternatives assumption (IIA) Note: Hausman and McFadden indicate that a negative result is evidence that the IIA hypothesis has not been violated.

4.-Results Binary logit model in terms: the relative risk ratios (RRR) Multinomial probit model in terms: marginal effects calculated as the change in the predicted probability when the independent variable changes from 0 to 1, in the case of binary variables, or from ½ σ below base to ½ σ above, in the case of continuous variables, holding other variables at their reference values (binary variables) or to their means (continuous variables). Reference categories: Sample from the interior: male, Spanish, from 23 to 39 years old, with a previous migration, first movement is intra-provincial whose destination is a municipality with less than 10.001 hab., in a non island province. If he/she is a foreigner, HDI from 0,75 to 0,9. Sample from abroad: foreigner, first destination in a province capital.

-2.5 -2 -1.5 1 1.5 2 Note: We only show the parameters with p-value ≤ 0,05. Moreover, the magnitudes of positive and negative are compared by taking the inverse of the negative effect (-1/RRR). Conclusion

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