Alan Robinson, Dstl ISMOR 28, Sep 2011 Reflections on SDSR and its Implications for the UK’s Future Analysis Capability Alan Robinson, Dstl ISMOR 28, Sep 2011 ©Crown Copyright 2011. Published with the permission of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory on behalf of the Controller of HMSO

Structure What did we achieve in SDSR ? What do we need to do better / differently next time ? How do we best meet the needs identified ? Disclaimer – my views, not (necessarily) those of Dstl or MoD 07 December 2018

SDSR and S&T Support Jan 2011 20 Oct 2010 CSR Work strands Synthesis Implementation CSR Policy Choices Capability Choices SDSR White Paper “Headlines” 20 Oct 2010 Work strands Ideas Jan 2011 PR11 “Detail” Synthesising work strand ideas. Force structure risk assessment Advice and analysis to support work strands Advice to mitigate risks and support implementation 07 December 2018

Some Keys To Success Having something useful to contribute Fast response to evolving issues through Quick methods Good problem structuring approaches Pre-prepared work (where appropriate) Good “consultancy” skills Persuading the right senior people to listen Track record Access 07 December 2018

Some Keys To Success Having something useful to contribute High Impact Having something useful to contribute Good “consultancy” skills Fast response to evolving issues through Quick methods Good problem structuring approaches Pre-prepared work (where appropriate) Persuading the right senior people to listen Track record Access Some Impact 07 December 2018

Keys to Enduring Success: During SDSR Analysis “Half full” Analysis seen to have an important contribution to make, but not necessarily having all the “answers” 07 December 2018

Keys to Enduring Success: After SDSR Analysis “Half empty” Need effort to enhance capabilities ready for the next time 07 December 2018

Analysis Interventions Messes Problems Puzzles Solution(s) Interventions Typically, problem structuring support, soft OA, SME workshops etc 1 Typically via the production of models, methods and other repeatable approaches 2 07 December 2018

So, Type 1... Ongoing need is for: Analyst Decision- maker So, Type 1... Ongoing need is for: Enhanced senior-level traction Continued efforts to develop track record of successful interventions Especially, helping to turn stakeholders messes into problems (or, if possible, puzzles) And, advertise those successes; educate those that might need analysis support Continued development of the cadre of staff with the right intervention skills – people skills as well as analytical know-how Lots of ongoing work, in particular under the label of Technical Consultancy 07 December 2018

And for Type 2... Semi-formal “gap analysis” conducted to Consider future analysis needs, based on NSS, SDSR Map those needs against extant capabilities Identify key analysis shortfalls Identify any current analysis capabilities that are no longer required Produced as a matrix... 07 December 2018

Don’t dwell on the details! Abridged extract

Traditional war fighting analysis is well covered although the analysis capabilities are better at tactical level than strategic level Abridged extract

Cyber is a newly emerging analysis area, and a key future requirement Abridged extract

Areas with human factors/decision making are less well developed although improvements are being made Abridged extract

C4ISTAR is an area with reasonable ability to analyse individual capabilities but it is harder to analyse how C4ISTAR fits in to the bigger campaign picture Abridged extract

In an era of severe affordability constraints, more attention to costing is required: through-life and pan lines-of-development Abridged extract

Other Points SDSR has re-defined how UK forces plan to operate: Issues of scale Planned force levels below that for which many existing models were developed. Issues of complexity Representation of coalition operations is simplistic (and often optimistic) Increasing emphasis on influence rather than armed force Analysis of kinetic currently much stronger than non-kinetic effects How do we best develop the necessary methods for the next SDSR; are there methods we can/should retire?

‘Requirements Led’ Spokes ‘Hub and Spoke’ approach to methods Actually, its a multi-layer approach, with some studies closer to the hub than others... Hub Study Study 1 Study 2 Study 3 ..... Study n ‘Requirements Led’ Spokes Tackle specific stakeholder issues Feed common challenges into the core “Pull” appropriate approaches from the core ‘Solutions Led’ Hub Overall coherence “Push” of new ideas Tackle (some) common issues, eg those with long lead times or high risk

Closing Thoughts (1) Beware of the hammer... For a man with a hammer, every problem is a nail... ... we need to develop tools to address the new(er) problems (But can we afford to throw the hammer away ?) 07 December 2018

?   Closing Thoughts (2) Keep watching the world... ...planning assumptions are precisely that and may well change ? or   07 December 2018

Closing Thoughts (3) The next SDSR isn’t that far away ! 07 December 2018

Questions, Observations … 07 December 2018