Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project (LRFTIP-A)

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Basics of numerical oceanic and coupled modelling Antonio Navarra Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Italy Simon Mason Scripps Institution.

Advertisements

Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Climate change in centuries in observational and model data Evgeny Volodin, Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS, Moscow, Russia.

Assessment of CFSv2 hindcast (seasonal mean) CPC/NCEP/NOAA Jan 2011.

CIG seminar -- September 27, Regional Climate Update Fall 2007.

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

The NCEP operational Climate Forecast System : configuration, products, and plan for the future Hua-Lu Pan Environmental Modeling Center NCEP.

Outline Background, climatology & variability Role of snow in the global climate system Indicators of climate change Future projections & implications.

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.

Genesis Potential Index and ENSO Suzana J. Camargo.

US National Multi-Model (NMME) Intra- Seasonal to Inter-Annual (ISI) Prediction System.

Climate Forecasting Unit Second Ph’d training talk Prediction of climate extreme events at seasonal and decadal time scale Aida Pintó Biescas.

Climate Forecasting Unit Prediction of climate extreme events at seasonal and decadal time scale Aida Pintó Biescas.

Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GE 101 – Spring 2007 Boston University Myneni L30:

International CLIVAR Working Group for Seasonal-to- Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) Ben Kirtman (Co-Chair WGSIP) George Mason University Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere.

Available products for Seasonal forecasting J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie.

Predicting global mean temperature. Developments at ECMWF Merge of monthly forecast into EPS –Medium-range EPS is now continuous with monthly forecast.

Collaborative Research: Toward reanalysis of the Arctic Climate System—sea ice and ocean reconstruction with data assimilation Synthesis of Arctic System.

Dataset Development within the Surface Processes Group David I. Berry and Elizabeth C. Kent.

CIMA CHFP Data Server.

Downscaling Future Climate Scenarios for the North Sea 2006 ROMS/TOMS Workshop, Alcalá de Henares, 6-8 November Bjørn Ådlandsvik Institute of Marine Research.

June 16th, 2009 Christian Pagé, CERFACS Laurent Terray, CERFACS - URA 1875 Julien Boé, U California Christophe Cassou, CERFACS - URA 1875 Weather typing.

Geneva 2-3 December 2011 Proposal for a sub-seasonal research data set.

Operational sub-regional Long-Range Forecasting Unit at RA VI Regional Climate Center – South-East European Virtual Climate Change Center Vladimir Djurdjevic.

Climate change projections for Vietnam from CMIP5 simulations Ramasamy Suppiah 29 November 2012.

Climate Forecasting Unit On the North Pacific reduced skill in near-term climate predictions of sea surface temperatures Virginie Guemas With the collaboration.

Tamas Kovacs Hungarian Meteorological Service Climatology Division Seasonal forecast and an outlook for Winter 2013/14 in Hungary Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session.

Studies of IGBP-related subjects in Northern Eurasia at the Laboratory of Climatology, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences Andrey B.Shmakin.

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Projected Future Changes Primary Source: IPCC WG-I Chapter 10 - Global.

Course Evaluation Closes June 8th.

3. Products of the EPS for three-month outlook 1) Outline of the EPS 2) Examples of products 3) Performance of the system.

Modes of variability and teleconnections: Part II Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Advanced School and Workshop on S2S ICTP,

1 Development of a Regional Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Hyodae Seo, Arthur J. Miller, John O. Roads, and Masao Kanamitsu Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Role of Soil Moisture Coupling on the Surface Temperature Variability Over the Indian Subcontinent J. Sanjay M.V.S Rama Rao and R. Krishnan Centre for.

ECMWF Training course 26/4/2006 DRD meeting, 2 July 2004 Frederic Vitart 1 Predictability on the Monthly Timescale Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK.

Using the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) System Johnna Infanti Advisor: Ben Kirtman.

CMEMS Mediterranean MFC. Update on specific development for CMEMS Med-MFC V2 Analysis and Forecast Product 1.Data Assimilation: Grid point EOFs ( * )

Verification of operational seasonal forecasts at RA-VI Regional Climate Center South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre Goran Pejanović Marija.

© Crown copyright Met Office Predictability and systematic error growth in Met Office MJO predictions Ann Shelly, Nick Savage & Sean Milton, UK Met Office.

Status / Progress Report for GPC Tokyo Takayuki Tokuhiro Climate Prediction Division, JMA

Marcel Rodney McGill University Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Supervisors: Dr. Hai Lin, Prof. Jacques Derome, Prof. Seok-Woo Son.

Subseasonal forecast data exchange with LC-LRFMME:

GPC-Montreal - Status Report - March 2014

LONG RANGE FORECAST SW MONSOON

Current State of the Pacific and Indian Oceans

Mid Term II Review.

WGSIP Francisco Doblas-Reyes (Barcelona Supercomputing Center BSC-CNS, Spain) William Merryfield (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment.

Challenges of Seasonal Forecasting: El Niño, La Niña, and La Nada

LONG RANGE FORECAST SW MONSOON

Course Evaluation Now online You should have gotten an with link.

Course Evaluation Now online You should have gotten an with link.

LONG RANGE FORECAST SW MONSOON

Prediction for Climate Services

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle Lab

Multi-model seasonal forecast Operational systems

Shuhua Li and Andrew W. Robertson

Course Evaluation Now online You should have gotten an with link.

Update on seasonal forecast system based on SL-AV model at Hydrometcentre of Russia. Decadal prediction plans. M.A. Tolstykh (2,1) and D.B.Kiktev (1),

Seasonal prediction of South Asian summer monsoon 2010: Met Office

Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF

Progress in Seasonal Forecasting at NCEP

Project Title: The Sensitivity of the Global Water and Energy Cycles:

Predictability assessment of climate predictions within the context

Case Studies in Decadal Climate Predictability

Atlantic Ocean Forcing of North American and European Summer Climate

1 GFDL-NOAA, 2 Princeton University, 3 BSC, 4 Cerfacs, 5 UCAR

Nonlinearity of atmospheric response

Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the IPRC Regional Model

Ongoing and Planned Activities in Sub-seasonal Forecasting at the NCEP

Decadal Climate Prediction at BSC

Presentation transcript:

Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project (LRFTIP-A) M.A. Tolstykh (1,2), T.V.Krasjuk (2) 1)Institute of Numerical Matematics Russian Academy of Sciences; 2) Hydrometcentre of Russia W. Merryfield (3) Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada

Motivation Beyond tropics, the atmosphere leads the ocean at subseasonal and seasonal time scales. The ‘pure’ atmospheric model developers are requested to minimize T2m, precip errors but often not the surface heat flux (or surface stress) errors. It is important to reduce the atmosphere model biases To do so, we have a lot of information in existing archives

Proposal. What to look at: Daily accumulated precipitation Daily (accumulated 24-hr) surface shortwave and longwave downward radiation fluxes and surface wind stress components Sea surface temperature (daily) These characteristics for the first forecast month should be integrated over the defined regions. Data should be averaged over hindcasts years. At least, four different initial months covering all seasons (ideally including February, May, August and November ) should be included, as in CHFP.

Proposal (contd.) Data sources: Daily data from existing seasonal hindcast archives such as the CHFP, ENSEMBLES, NMME Phase 2 and ongoing S2S projects can be used. First, the ‘climatology’ used by each center should be calculated; then the anomalies. In addition to global diagnostics, 3 regions are proposed for this diagnostics: Tropical Pacific ocean (10S-10N, 150E-90W) North-Atlantic region (15N -75N, 80W-20E) Tropical Atlantic (10S-10N, 50W – 0E) The initialization method should be reported.

Some preliminary results from S2S archive Technical details: in future S2S ECMWF data portal plans to provide `on the fly’ GRIB2 to NETCDF CMIP-compliant conversion, currently, only GRIB2 data are available Not all data from the centres participating in the project have been processed yet.

ECMWF S2S forecasts 20150105

ECMWF S2S forecasts 20150430

JMA S2S forecasts, 20150106

JMA S2S forecasts, 20150429

Thank you for attention!