Director: Wolfgang Lutz Deputy Director: Sergei Scherbov

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Presentation transcript:

Director: Wolfgang Lutz Deputy Director: Sergei Scherbov Developing and Applying Population and Human Capital Projections around the World World Population Program (POP) Director: Wolfgang Lutz Deputy Director: Sergei Scherbov

Long History of Population Research at IIASA 1974-1984 Andrei Rogers 1984-1994 Nathan Keyfitz 1994 - … Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov …. What stands out as unique contributions of POP? Multi-dimensional (multi-state) Demographic Methods Pioneering Global Probabilistic Population Projections Population – Development – Environment Analysis Modeling of Human Capital Formation Re-defining age and ageing

First probabilistic world population projections: Lutz, Sanderson & Scherbov (IIASA) Nature (1998): Doubling of world population unlikely Nature (2001): The end of world population growth Nature (2008): The coming acceleration of global population ageing

Oxford University Press 2014 1056 pages, 26 lead authors, 46 contributing authors, 550 expert assessments, 191 country tables

World Population Projections

Membership in the Group of 15 Independent Scientists to draft the 2019 Global Sustainable Development Report

Demographic Metabolism: Population Dynamics by Age, Sex and Level of Education Education is most important source of measurable population heterogeneity after age and sex. Proxy measure of social inequality? The Human Core of the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)

Assuming identical education-specific fertility trends different education scenarios make a difference of more than 1 billion people by 2050. CEN gives the world population trend according to the most pessimistic scenario assuming that no new schools will be built FT gives the most optimistic scenario assuming that countries can achieve the rapid education expansion that South Korea achieved

2015: Sustainable Development Goal 4: (all IIASA) 2015: Sustainable Development Goal 4: …. quality primary and secondary education for all girls and boys …. .

Forecasting Societies‘ Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (ERC Adv Forecasting Societies‘ Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (ERC Adv. Grant to WL, IIASA)

Redefining Age and Ageing ERC Adv. Grant, Sergei Scherbov (IIASA)

Global Migration Streams 2005-10

Workplan of JRC/IIASA Centre The cooperation is to be based on equal partnership between the two research institutions. A team of 10 researchers will be dedicated to the task (5 at IIASA, 5 at JRC-Ispra). Timed to feed results into the work plan of the new European Commission to take office in 2019 Structure of work: Component (a): Analysis of “Push Factors” in Africa and Western Asia and “Facilitating Factors”, Component (b): Analysis of “Pull Factors” in the EU, Component (c): Modelling of alternative possible migration streams and their impacts on population ageing and its economic consequences in the EU.

Education specific labour force projections for the EU Total labour force in EU26 countries, 2003-2053, by scenario, considering education (solid lines) or not (dotted lines) Potential economic dependency ratio in EU26 countries, 2008-2003, considering education (solid lines) or not (dotted lines) Source: Adapted from Loichinger (2015)