East Coast Route Study November 2016 update

1. Update and strategy 7-Dec-18

East Coast Route Study: Overview 30 year forward view Based on economic market analysis Consulted across industry Defines demand Proposes enhancements strategy Provides choices for investment Existing east coast railway close to capacity Competing Aspirations: HS2, Classic Network and Northern Powerhouse Rail Major interventions needed to unlock significant extra capacity Power supply priority Line speed & resilience opportunities Digital Railway opportunities Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

Long Term Planning Process (LTPP) Freight etc Scotland Wales Cross Boundary Analysis Anglia East Coast Route Studies Regional Urban Passenger London & SE Passenger Western Market Studies Long Distance Passenger Operators Funders Stakeholder consultation Service Specifiers Planning Authorities Public Industry Plans and Enhancements Funding Enhancement Options for Funders RF

Summary of what we know Demand IEP & HS2 meets long distance demand Inner suburban growth accounted for by rolling stock until end CP6; effects of Thameslink expected to increase demand sooner Conditional Outputs (2043): connectivity for economic growth Service specification defined by increased connectivity that generates economic benefits Interventions required throughout route Little opportunity for small scale interventions that add significant capacity South of Doncaster: less critical North of Doncaster (esp. York to Newcastle) highly critical: significant intervention required to unlock even incremental capacity Nature of Constraints Mix of traffic with different speeds the overriding issue Conflicting movements at junctions and stations 7-Dec-18

Summary of issues The overriding issue is speed mix Even 4 track sections are capacity limited when traffic runs at different speeds Line speeds will increase over time to drive journey time down, worsening the problem New physical infrastructure is an expensive solution: you need a lot of it for a small increase in capacity Major bottlenecks shape the service structure: Welwyn, Stilton Fen, Tyne Bridges New signalling solutions offer additional potential Alternative service patterns are not always viable / attractive to funders Affordability Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

Defining a growth strategy Piecemeal building is not a long term solution: just moves the constraint around. So: Define a strategic approach for the route Develop enhancements packages that move towards target outputs Promote opportunities for investment Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

Proposed Strategic Approach Increase line capacity by reducing the speed difference between services, and reducing headway; improve performance, safety and resilience Rolling stock, improved freight journey times, higher performing local units Dedicated fast and slow lines Link diversionary routes to create dedicated freight paths Use traffic management technology to manage non-stop paths and freight journey time Separate slow/stopping traffic from fast Build additional routes to separate flows where necessary Use technology to reduce headway and manage passenger experience Develop safer resilient infrastructure = better performance Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

2. The ECRS report 7-Dec-18

Proposed Report Structure Route Study Appendices Info Graphic Pack Consultation & Data Room Summary Document ECMA Narrative ‘Flyer’ Economic Narrative Economic narratives to be developed by Economic Group Leads for: KGX to PBO PBO to Doncaster – Lincs Doncaster to Leeds & York York to Newcastle Newcastle to Scotland ECMA overview used to provide whole-route narrative Regional group priorities feed into economic narrative Regional Group Priorities Funding Strategy Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

Funding and Business Cases Route Study report format and content Organised by Route Section Aligned to Local Economic Narratives and Commercial Drivers Context and Challenges Whole Network/ Whole System Infographics Links to offline evidence and supporting material Funding and Business Cases Context and Challenges: Set out devolved funding environment Align to local economic narratives & funds Illustrate models for funding Based on 5 Cases Strategic Outline Business Case Elements 7-Dec-18

Report Opportunities data examples ECMA Narrative: whole route Local Narratives: Which could include (but not limited to): Driving the economy better connections journey times ports and freight termini Evidence: Sectors strengths data target growth examples real examples Planning housing stations air and road Funding: existing innovation and multistream Employment and skills Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer

East Coast Route Study programme: next steps Present interventions as choices for funders Spring 2017 Publish a strategic study for the long term development of the ECML Spring 2017 This will be a draft version for consultation at first Presentation Title: View > Header & Footer