Evaluate Economic Impact of Transgenes Dr Objective 4a Evaluate Economic Impact of Transgenes Lead PI: Chad Hart http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html

Timeline/Milestones for Year 4 Websites of Timeline/Milestones for Year 4 http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html

Task i. Establish baseline data Establish baseline data on: U.S. and global soybean markets SDS losses Regulatory costs of transgenic varieties Utilize USDA World Ag. Supply & Demand data for 1a. Combine USDA data with information from industry and commodity groups for 1b. Work with Dr. Kalaitzandonakes and industry representatives to map out regulatory cost structure http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html

Projections for the U.S. Soybean Market Websites of http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html Source: USDA-Office of Chief Economist, Long-term Projections, released Feb. 2016

Estimated SDS Losses http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html Websites of http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html Additional Source: USDA-Risk Management Agency, Cause of Loss dataset

Estimated SDS Losses http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html Websites of http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html

Estimated SDS Losses http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html Websites of http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html

Example of Regulatory Cost Estimate http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html Source: Kalaitzandonakes, Alston, and Bradford, 2005

Task ii. Evaluate revenues and production costs Generate historical average and projected prices Price premiums/discounts for transgenics Revenue impacts from yield changes Generate production cost estimates Utilize established costs for standard crop Augment cost budget for transgenics http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html

Task iii. Analyze impact of adoption of lines in U.S. Use the outputs from tasks i and ii as inputs for scenario analysis Impacts on plantings, supply, demand, etc. Multiple scenarios exploring adoption rates, regulatory costs, and price impacts http://soysdsresistance.ag.iastate.edu/index.html