ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast

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Presentation transcript:

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast A Survey of Leading Real Estate Economists/Analysts uli.org/consensusforecast April 2017 ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast Three-year forecast (‘17-’19) for 27 economic and real estate indicators. A consensus forecast based on the median of the forecasts from 53 economists/analysts at 39 leading real estate organizations. Respondents represent major real estate investment, advisory, and research firms and organizations. Survey undertaken from March 3 – April 1, 2017. A semi-annual survey; next release planned for October 2017.

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast Real GDP Growth 3 Sources: 1997-2016, Bureau of Economic Analysis; 2017-2019, ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in October, 2016) projected 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively, for 2017 and 2018.

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast Employment Growth 4 Sources: 1997-2016, Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2017-2019, ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in October, 2016) projected 2.00 and 1.80, respectively, for 2017 and 2018.

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast Ten-Year Treasury Rate 5 Sources: 1997-2016 (YE), U.S. Federal Reserve; 2017-2019 (YE), ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in October, 2016) projected 2.2% and 2.5% respectively, for 2017 and 2018.

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast Commercial Real Estate Transaction Volume 6 Sources: 2001-2016, Real Capital Analytics; 2017-2019, ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in October, 2016) projected $450 and $428 respectively, for 2017 and 2018.

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Issuance 7 Sources: 1997-2016, Commercial Mortgage Alert; 2017-2019, ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in October, 2016) projected $85 billion and $90 billion, respectively, for 2017 and 2018.

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast NCREIF Total Annual Returns 8 Sources: 1997-2016 National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF); 2017-2019, ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in October, 2016) projected 7.0% and 6.0% respectively, for 2017 and 2018.

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast NCREIF Industrial Total Annual Returns 9 Sources: 1997-2016, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF); 2017-2019, ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in October, 2016) projected 8.5% and 7.0% respectively, for 2017 and 2018.

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast NCREIF Office Total Annual Returns 10 Sources: 1997-2016, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF); 2017-2019, ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in October, 2016) projected 7.5% and 6.5% respectively, for 2017 and 2018.

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast NCREIF Apartment Total Annual Returns 11 Sources: 1997-2016, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF); 2017-2019, ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in October, 2016) projected 7.0% and 5.6%, respectively, for 2017 and 2018.

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast NCREIF Retail Total Annual Returns 12 Sources: 1997-2016, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF); 2017-2019, ULI Consensus Forecast. Note: The previous ULI Consensus Forecast (released in October, 2016) projected 8.0% and 6.0%, respectively, for 2017 and 2018. .

ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast A Survey of Leading Real Estate Economists/Analysts uli.org/consensusforecast April 2017 ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate