Experimental setup (SPICE)

Dust logger/EDML log matching prediction for precision of extrapolation outside IceCube is based on the correlation with SPICE model: 14% Correlation with SPICE ice model Merging Dust Logger and EDML logs

fit region (inside detector) black line: 7-string fit to flasher data gray band: scaled merged dust log (m-1) (m) extrapolation region fit region (inside detector) (outside detector)

fit region (inside detector) black line: 7-string fit to flasher data gray band: scaled merged dust log (m-1) (m) extrapolation region fit region (inside detector) (outside detector)

fit region (inside detector) black line: 7-string fit to flasher data gray band: scaled merged dust log (m) extrapolation region fit region (inside detector) (outside detector)

fit region (inside detector) black line: 7-string fit to flasher data gray band: scaled merged dust log (m) extrapolation region fit region (inside detector) (outside detector)

Model error of SPICE: ~10% > 0, 1, 10, 100, 400 p.e./event 19, 24, 57, 62, 80, 81+63 with LED pattern unfolding + with DOM efficiencies

Timeline AMANDA ice models: bulk, f125, mam, mamint, stdkurt, sudkurt, kgm, … millennium (published 2006)  AHA (2007) 55% IceCube ice models: cont.  WHAM (2011) 42% SPICE 1 (2009) 29% SPICE 2, 2+, 2x, 2y (2010) added ice layer tilt SPICE Mie (2010) fit to scattering function 29% SPICE Lea (2012) fit to scattering anisotropy 20% SPICE Next (2013) 7-string, LED unfolding 17% SPICE Next New (2014) llh fixes, DOM sensitivity fits 12%