Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

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Presentation transcript:

Recap of Water Year 2007 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2008 Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington

Recap of WY 2007

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/plumes/ Obs.

Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY 2007. (Nino3.4 anomalies between 0.7 and 1.5) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = LTM from 1950-1999 Blue = Ensemble Mean Modified Flow (cfs)

Validation of 2007 Forecast Modified Flow (cfs)

ColSim Reservoir System Storage Forecast All Years from 1960-1999 for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= 0.7 AND <= 1.5 Obs Storage Sept 30, 2007 45.86 MAF 2007

WY 2008 Forecast

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3!3.4!200709!/

April-September Naturalized Flow for the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR from Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies. 1916-2002

Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2003 Natural Streamflow (cfs)

Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2003 Natural Streamflow (cfs)

Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2003 Natural Streamflow (cfs)

West-Wide Hydrologic Forecast

Bias Adjusted West Wide Forecast (1961-2000) Modified Streamflow (cfs)

Bias Adjusted West Wide Forecast (1961-2000) Modified Streamflow (cfs)

Bias Adjusted West Wide Forecast (1961-2000) [ -1.4 to -0.6 ] Modified Streamflow (cfs)

ColSim Storage Forecast (cool ENSO composite 1961-2000)

Conclusions: The WY 2007 ESP forecast predicted increased likelihood of drought. Observed summer flows in 2007 were below average and were close to the ensemble forecast mean (skillful forecast). A moderate to strong cool ENSO event is expected for the winter of 2007-2008, which historically is associated with increased likelihood of above average Apr-Sep flow at The Dalles. Dry initial soil conditions in the basin are projected to systematically reduce natural flows from Jan-July for water year 2008 by about 8 percent. The combined forecast is for near normal conditions, because the cool ENSO signal and soil moisture signal are roughly equal and in opposite directions.

Potential Implications of ENSO Transition States WY 2007 WY 2008

Historic Dalles Apr-Sept streamflow anomalies for water years with previous winter warm ENSO, current winter cool ENSO 1904 1.47 1907 1.00 1921 1925 0.49 1932 0.39 1943 0.88 1965 0.90 1971 1.55 1974 2.22 1984 0.58 1989 -0.40 1996 0.93 1999 0.89 Stats: 12 of 13 above 0.39 11 of 13 above 0.49 9 of 13 above 0.88

Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2003 Natural Streamflow (cfs)