Bush/Rumsfeld Defense Priorities/Objectives A Mandate For Change Bush Priorities Develop the capabilities to defend against missiles, terrorism, and threats against space assets and information systems Create the military of the new century by taking advantage of new possibilities offered by the ongoing Technological Revolution Rumsfeld objectives for deterring and defending against new threats Modernize US C3I capabilities Modern C3I infrastructure is the foundation upon which military power rests and is fundamental to the transformation of US military forces. We must also strengthen our intelligence capabilities and space capabilities and protect those assaults against various forms of attack Transform US Defense establishment --- by swiftly introducing new weapon systems. Technology as enabler for transformation to address new threats

Some Concepts Associated With Transformation Asymmetric uncertain threats and new demanding missions Flexibility to dominate over spectrum of operations Agile dispersed forces networked by C4ISR to enable new warfighting concepts Network centric warfare and effects based outcome Rapid decisive operations enabled by Joint Adaptive C2 Information Superiority and Decision Dominance Tailorable assured survivable system-of-system information infrastructure Global information Grid Reengineered force structure, organization, doctrine, --- Mission capability packages Assimilation of within-reach technology while preparing for long-term less understood problems Exploration, innovation and adaptation Potential for fundamental changes on unprecedented scale

OSD Analysis Framework Blue Battlespace Entities Shared Awareness Red Entities C2 Command Concept Suppliers Perceptions Intent ROEs Organization Doctrine Combat Adjudicator Degree of Synchronization (Includes IO) Shooters Decision Behavior Perceptions Perceptions Operational Outcome Mission MOEs Shared Information Information Dissemination / Management Quality of Information Analysis Sensors Quality of observations Ground Truth

Modeling and Simulation for C4ISR Assessment DoD Goal: Integrated framework for examining & understanding the casual relationship between C4ISR system performance and combat outcome (PBD 07OC) DoD Challenge: Modeling C2 in a manner that facilitates assessment of C4ISR contribution to combat outcome DoD Approach: Establish R&D program for modeling critical aspects of C2 Focus on modeling for C2 decision-making Task DISA and others DISA Strategy: Practical, Multi-Pronged Approach Develop a five year R&D plan to improve modeling of C2 decision-making Define and evolve initial M/S research and analysis capability Explore approaches for modeling C2 Decision Making in the analysis of C4ISR issues of interest to DISA customers In conjunction with with JFCOM focus experimentation to develop needed data

Objectives of Workshop Improve Models for C2 Decision Making Practical strategy Use full C4ISR assessment capability Credible insights regarding impact Target opportunities for improvement Better models for near term Areas to focus sustained research

Scope and Focus of Workshop Combat operations and scenarios Small scale contingencies/major theater war Analyses using the JWARS Campaign Model Evaluation of operations plan Assessment of C2 concepts/system mixes Decisions in the context of the IS value chain Quality of information (QOI), decision, combat outcome QOI, shared awareness, collaboration, synchronization, outcome Multi-level modeling and experimentation Improved representation of decision making in JWARS Improved modeling of decision-making in supporting tools Data for key modeling parameters and variables

Echelon of Decision-Making Format for Workshop Briefings to set the stage Operational domain oriented working groups Operational scenarios/vignettes Campaign Echelon of Decision-Making Strategic Operational Tactical Korea SWA Disrupt by Fire Precision Strike Dominant Maneuver Columbia Lebanon Kosovo Take the Hill What decisions / decision elements can / should be modeled? How might they be modeled?

Setting The Stage The Operational View Dr. Hayes JWARS Capabilities LTC McIntyre DMSO Developments LTC Bjorkman Impact of C4ISR Dr. Hiniker Organizational Models Dr. Serfaty Cognitive Models Dr. Leedham

Modeling C2 Decision-Making Processes Summer Workshop July 2001 Dave Signori RAND Dick Hayes EBR