Global Famine After Limited Nuclear War and The Direct Effects of Large Scale Nuclear War Physicians for Social Responsibility Washington April 27, 2017

At this point in time, we are ill prepared to deal with a major fall in world food supply. As of January of this year, global grain stocks were equal to approximately 60 days of consumption, lower than at any point in the last 50 years, and dramatically lower than the 100 to 120 days of consumption available in the 1980’s and 1990’s. These stocks would not provide any significant reserve in the event of a sharp decline in global production. 2

Chronic Malnutrition Today 1,800-2,200 calories minimum daily requirement 795 million people at or below this level of daily intake At our current baseline there are already millions of people suffering chronic malnutrition. The average adult needs somewhere between 1800 and 2000 calories per day, depending on his or her stature, to meet basic metabolic requirements and sustain a minimal level of physical activity Requirements for children are dependent on age and size. There are more just over one billion people in the world whose daily caloric intake falls below these minimum requirements. Each year some five million children in this group starve to death. A small further decline in available food would put this entire group at risk. In addition there are hundreds of millions of people who have adequate food consumption now but who live in countries where much of the food is imported. For example, North Africa, home to more than 150 million people, with average caloric consumption well above the minimal level, imports 45% of its food. A number of other countries in the Middle East, plus Malaysia, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are also dependent on imports for 50% or more of their grain consumption. All told, an additional several hundred million people would be at risk if there was a major interruption in international grain trade 3

Two billion dead from starvation alone? If famine conditions persisted for a year or more, it seems reasonable to fear that the total global death toll could exceed one billion from starvation alone. 4

Hiroshima after the bombing In the scenario used in the BMJ study the bomb would decimate much of lower Manhattan. The report determined that the heat and blast from the explosion would kill 52,000 people immediately. As many as 238,000 people would be exposed to direct radiation emanating from the blast. Of those exposed, 44,000 individuals would suffer radiation sickness and another 10,000 of these would receive lethal doses from the initial explosion. In addition, a cloud of radioactive debris would travel hundreds of miles in the next 24-48 hours depending on wind patterns and other weather conditions. The study found that another million and a half people would be exposed to this radioactive fallout in the following few days. Unless the exposed population was evacuated or sheltered, this fallout would kill 200,000 people, and cause several hundred thousand cases of acute radiation sickness. The attack would destroy 1000 acute care hospital beds, and another 8700 acute care beds would need to be abandoned because they would lie in the area of heavy radioactive fallout. The impact on the rest of the country, and the world, is hard to imagine. But, even more worrisome than the threat of nuclear terrorism is the possibility of a “limited” regional nuclear war between emerging nuclear powers such as India and Pakistan. 5 5 5

A Human Health Disaster Acute Effects of Radiation Burns, “Radiation Sickness,” “Drowning” in Lung Fluids, Skin Lesions, Flashblindness and Retinal Burn, and Death. In the immediate post attack period, burns would constitute the most common and serious medical problem. Hundreds of thousands of people would have sustained major second and third degree burns, some from the direct effects of the heat flash on exposed skin, others injured in the thousands of fires that would rage on the periphery of the great firestorm. These people would need urgent and intensive medical therapy. It would not be available. In the entire United States, there are only 2000 special beds for burn patients. Even a major medical center like Boston has fewer than 100 burn beds and these would have been destroyed by the bomb. At best, a tiny fraction of the hundreds of thousands of burn patients would receive appropriate medical care. The rest would die In addition to these burn patients there would be many thousands of other injuries. People blinded by the flash or deafened when the pressure wave ruptured their ear drums. People with lungs collapsed by the tremendous pressures. People with stab wounds from flying debris. People with bones broken when they had been hurled through the air by the hurricane force winds or trapped under collapsing buildings. If this attack were part of a large scale war between the US and Russia, this same level of destruction would be visited on every major cityin the United States and Russia, and, if NATO were drawn into the conflict, on most of the major cities in Europe. A study done by PSR in 2002 showed that if only 300 Russian warheads got through to urban targets in the US 75 to 100 million people would die in the first half hour and the entirte economic infrastructure which we rely on to maintain our population would be destroyed. The public health system, the communications network, the power grid, the food distribution system would all be gone. In the months that followed the vast majority of the population in the US, Russia and Europe would die from exposure, starvation, radiation poisoning and epidemic disease. 11

75 Million Dead in 30 Minutes 300 Warheads 75 Million Dead in 30 Minutes

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