Two-Year Budgeting Workshop Credit Hour Projection Model 2.0 Nathan Schroder Todd Schmitz John Burgoon September 19, 2018 University Budget Office (UBO)

History/Goal of Projector Nathan Schroder, UBO History/Goal of Projector Current Goals What are we doing? Why are we doing it this way? Which things matter to you? Old system – everyone has their own New system – everyone shares the same tools, get it right the first time Flatten out the calendar so we are not crunched so hard Make sure all the reports come from the same information source Automatic and self-service reporting Customized reports – your spreadsheets used as our templates We’d rather have everything included than something be excluded or unreported Future Goals Automatic BC load Your tools integrated from ours Which - Jeff B./Education, Mary Edwards/Law Old - Good luck to you, hope no one retires Unreported - (i.e, NW non-traditional) 2

Data Pipeline Nathan Schroder, UBO 3 Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 3

Enrollment Projections Todd Schmitz, UIRR Enrollment Projections An informed and replicable prediction of future enrollments Many methods to achieve this end – weighted averages, ratios, Markov chains, regression models Seeking “elegant simplicity” Various models tested Hybrid Progression model adopted Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 4

Fall Enrollment Study - Process Todd Schmitz, UIRR Fall Enrollment Study - Process Demographic data from Indiana Department of Education enrollment by county by grade level, public and private high school graduates by county Progression ratios for 1st – 6th, 6th – 9th, 9th – 12th, and 12th to grad. output of process: projected high school graduates in Indiana for the next eleven years College Pipeline project with ICHE Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 5

Fall Enrollment Study - Process Todd Schmitz, UIRR Fall Enrollment Study - Process Calculation of “yield:” percentage of high school graduates by county and year of graduation enrolling at any campus Projection of new students for next eleven years by campus Add ratio of transfers to the first year undergraduate population Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 6

Fall Enrollment Study - Process Todd Schmitz, UIRR Fall Enrollment Study - Process Progression ratios where: Known relationship exists between classes Degree seeking undergraduates Professional students Weighted averages where: No relationship exists between classes Non-degree seeking students Masters, Specialists, Doctoral Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 7

Fall Enrollment Study – “Working Documents” Todd Schmitz, UIRR Fall Enrollment Study – “Working Documents” Modeling workbook distributed to campuses (CFO, EM, IR) Views for resident, non-resident, reciprocity, international Heads and hours by level/class Ratios and levers tab HS feeder tab Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 8

Workbook example Todd Schmitz, UIRR 3 year averages Progression Ratios Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 9

Workbook “Levers” Todd Schmitz, UIRR Modeling Levers Marketing success, yield/draw Traditional vs non-traditional students Transfer admissions Expected change in retention efforts (these feedback to the worksheets) Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 10

Workbook “Levers” Todd Schmitz, UIRR 11 Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 11

Fall Enrollment Study Demographic changes Todd Schmitz, UIRR Fall Enrollment Study Demographic changes Changes in retention from new initiatives New or discontinued programs Environmental variables economy competition Graduate and professional enrollment Class limits/space Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 12

Fall Enrollment Study – Campus Returns Todd Schmitz, UIRR Fall Enrollment Study – Campus Returns Vetted and/or modified campus views are returned to UIRR Data is copied into a database that is supplemented with other variables Shared with UBO for manipulation and credit hour projector High level projections report (from our website) Modifications on headcount at BL and IUPUI Used in Point in Cycle reports for future fall Great interest from real estate developers! Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 13

Data Gathering Nathan Schroder, UBO Fall Enrollment Study gives a best guess of upcoming enrollment trends (i.e., 0.985 or 1.02) Credit Hour Actuals from Official Census * E.S. factor (UBO Projected Hours) E.S. Factor applied to Fall and Spring but not Summer Campus provides credit hour projections based on their knowledge from their departments/RCs Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 14

Data Gathering Nathan Schroder, UBO Rates are calculated from real amounts found in Fee Class Price Rate escalations applied when appropriate REVENUE FORMULA: Campus credit hour projections/heads * Rates = $$$ Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 15

Additional Data Changes Nathan Schroder, UBO Additional Data Changes OCC Home added (OCCH) Home is where you are both the Campus of Enrollment (OCCE) and Campus of Instruction (OCCI) Residency Will Be Object Code Residency, not Student Official Residency or Tuition Residency Student reciprocity will be included for East and Southeast for reporting purposes Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 16

BUDU Website screen capture John Burgoon, UBO BUDU Website screen capture Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 17

CrHr Proj – Campus Level John Burgoon, UBO CrHr Proj – RC Level Landing site looks the same as last year Login takes you straight to your RC Export to Excel and self-service reports Save Your Work CrHr Proj – Campus Level Campus-level page shows RC summaries Self-service V1 at Campus Level Campus FO can add users and also pull up editing access to campus level Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 18

CrHr Reporting John Burgoon, UBO Self-service reporting at all levels Vconstant, Vpending, Vfinal (old V1) – labels change as we progress through rate updates Custom reports are available. You can provide your preferred Excel template Total credit hours used in budget is reported to UIRR Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 19

BC Input John Burgoon, UBO BC Submission 20 Goal for this year: make data gathering easy as possible Goal for next year: automatic load / file generation Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input 20

Projector Timeline (Calendar) John Burgoon, UBO Projector Timeline (Calendar) December E.S. Received February Open Cr Hr Projector (Vc) April Close Cr Hr Projector (Vc) May Official rate escalation (V1) Enrollment Study Data Gathering Website Reports BC Input talk about Timing – how to smooth out the entire process Fall - Campus completes E.S. April Fee rate requests (Vp) April RC level budgeting May Campus level budgeting 21

Questions? Todd Schmitz, UIRR schmitz@iu.edu John Burgoon, UBO jburgoon@iu.edu Nathan Schroder, UBO nschrode@iu.edu