Hurricanes & Cruise Passengers in the Caribbean

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Presentation transcript:

Hurricanes & Cruise Passengers in the Caribbean Manon Magill

Goal Determine a relationship (if any) between the number of cruise ship passengers and hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean

Motivation Hurricanes are destructive events, especially when they make landfall 2004 hurricane season in Florida Cruise ships often enter warm, hurricane friendly waters over the summer Potential for impact on sales

Background

Hypothesis There is a correlation between the number of cruise ship passengers and the number of hurricanes per season.

Data Sources NOAA for Hurricane Data U.S. DOT – Maritime Administration for Cruise Data Analyzed data per quartile for Bahamas and Caribbean destinations Number of passengers

First Glance

Methods: Least Squares Regression Least squares is influenced the least by outliers out of all of the regression analysis methods For correlation coefficient: P-value of cc is 0.004, indicating that the correlation coeff is significant.

Methods: Residual Analysis -Chi squared test Since chi1 is less than CHI, data is considered normally distributed

Methods: Bootstrap

Method: Autocorrelation

Method: Periodogram

Analysis Correlation between the number cruise passengers and hurricanes exists Correlation coefficient is only .58, so not necessarily strong evidence for this phenomenon No strong periodicity

Sources http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/DataByYearandStorm.html https://www.marad.dot.gov/wp- content/uploads/pdf/North_American_Cruise_Statistics_Quarterly _Snapshot.pdf