NUMBERS IN ACTION: CYCLES OF DEMOCRACY

OUTLINE Purpose: Discussion of Practical Applications Democratization in Latin America Legacies of Independence Cycles and Trends Global and Comparative Perspectives Democratic Dominoes? Subregional Variations and the Colossus of the North Lessons over Time: Earlier Experience Democracy and Instability

Key Question: What’s new about the current wave of democracy? N countries = 19 N years = 101 N country-years = 1,919 Key Concept: Distinction between (a) quality of elections, and (b) protection of civil liberties—i.e., between “procedural” and “substantive” components of democracy.

CATEGORIES OF ELECTORAL REGIMES Electoral democracy = free and fair elections Semidemocracy = elections free but not fair; or, effective power not vested in winner of elections Competitive oligarchy = elections fair but not free; candidates restricted to socio-economic elite and suffrage restricted to minority of population Autocracy/authoritarianism = no elections, or elections neither free nor fair.

MODES OF AGGREGATION: By year By country Or, in other types of research project, by such characteristics as (a) age, (b) academic class, (c) region, (d) parents’ occupation, etc.

ON LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT Nominal variable (for each country-year) Interval-scale variable (N or % countries—or % people-- within each category for each year) Note: Quality of electoral system not here considered as “ordered nominal” variable—but could it be?

Figure 3. The Path of Democratic Change, 1900-2000

KEY ISSUES FOR STUDY OF CYCLES OF DEMOCRACY: Approaching concept of “democracy” Disaggregating concept into component parts (i.e., elections, representation, citizens’ rights, provision of social justice and/or material benefits, etc.) Challenge: Obtaining valid and reliable measurements