Stratosphere resolving Historical Forecast Project

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Presentation transcript:

Stratosphere resolving Historical Forecast Project Amy Butler, Adam Scaife, Alexey Karpechko, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Alan O’Neill, Natalia Calvo, Maria Athanassiadou, plus others to be confirmed…

Biases in the stratosphere and troposphere

NAO in sea level pressure – Hi Top vs Low Top

North Atlantic Oscillation (usual definition)

Extra winter skill in stratosphere resolving models

Extra skill is from ENSO years

SHFP activity summary Seven high top and seven low top models are now in the CHFP These are being analysed by our WCRP-SPARC colleagues High top models show higher skill (but this is an ensemble of opportunity) The differences in skill are apparent in relevant surface quantities The differences are prominent over the northern extratropics in winter and appear to be related to ENSO teleconnections which are already known to operate via the stratosphere A paper is in preparation led by Amy – should we add one person from each data providing centre?

Surface Northern Annular Mode

Mid-troposhere Northern Annular Mode