INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

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Presentation transcript:

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FOCRA II OUTLOOK A K SRIVASTAVA INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

In Asia, China has been coordinating an RCOF called Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional Association II, Asia (FOCRAII) since 2005, covering the entire continent Thus the recent FOCRA II (held at Beijing during 6-8 April) was the sixth meet

Participants Countries China, Japan, Korea, DPR Korea Mongolia. Kazakhstan, Russia Laos, Macao Pakistan, Maldives, India

Institute Representation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting : Dr. Tim Stockdale Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University: Ngar-Cheung Lau International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University : Liqiang Sun Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan : Akio KITOH

NOAA Climate Prediction Centre: SongYang University of Hawaii : Fie-Fie Jin Hadley Centre : Anca Brookshaw Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD)‏ Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), CNRS/UPMC-Paris : Laurent Z.X. Li

In the forum, experts and participants discussed regarding evolution and likely future behaviour of different global forcing/tele-connection and its impact on the EASM and Summer Monsoon over the South Asia.

Finally based on input forecasts, consensus Outlook for temperature and precipitation for the coming monsoon season was issued and which is summarized in next slide.

Summary of the outlook SEAM rainfall is likely to be below normal and Onset may also be delayed (due to above normal snow, negative AO, +ve SST anomalies, stronger NW Pacific Anticyclone, weaker TEJ ) Summer monsoon rainfall over the South Asia is likely to be normal. Over India more rain over the southern parts. Temperature is likely be normal/above normal over most part of the Asia

Thank You