Forensic Thinking, Fast and Slow

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Presentation transcript:

Forensic Thinking, Fast and Slow International Conference on Forensic Research & Technology October, 2012 Chicago, Illinois Mark W Perlin, PhD, MD, PhD Cybergenetics, Pittsburgh, PA Cybergenetics © 2003-2012 Cybergenetics © 2003-2012

Zombie DNA

Rush to judgment

Not so fast First contributor Second contributor

Is it a match? YES? NO? MAYBE!

Match statistic Probability(evidence match) Probability(coincidental match) • slow, deliberative thought • consider every possibility • objective & unbiased inference • only see evidence, never a suspect • provide information: strength of match

Plain language A match between the evidence and the suspect is 12.3 trillion times more probable than a coincidental match to an unrelated person

Information age Perlin MW. Forensic science in the information age. Forensic Magazine. 2012;9(2):17-21.