Secular stagnation and growth measurement CONFERENCE

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Presentation transcript:

Secular stagnation and growth measurement CONFERENCE François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France Paris, 16 January 2017

A SLOWDOWN IN ADVANCED COUNTRIES BY STAGES SINCE THE 1970S

Conference outline 1. MEASUREMENT ASPECTS: IS THIS SLOWDOWN A STATISTICAL ARTEFACT? 2. ON THE DEMAND SIDE: IS THE ZLB INDUCING INSUFFICIENT DEMAND? 3. ON THE SUPPLY SIDE: A PERMANENT SLOWDOWN IN THE CONTRIBUTION OF INNOVATION TO PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH?

Challenges of digitalization are: 1. MEASUREMENT ASPECTS Challenges of digitalization are: Conceptual as the frontier between market and non-market economy is moving Travel agency services now partly home produced Increase in their quality and quantity Yet, decrease in its value added as measured in national accounts. Practical, as: New kinds of service are imported Location of activities is less clear Deflators for service output are more difficult to estimate

2. DIFFERENT WAGE RESPONSES TO UNEMPLOYMENT?

2. INCOME INEQUALITY

3. DIFFUSION LAGS OF INNOVATION ACROSS FIRMS