Mohammad Khalessi, Ph.D. CEO/President PredictionProbe, Inc. Conference on Quality in Space & Defense Industries CQSDI ‘08 Probabilistic Technology Panel: What Is Probabilistic Technology? Mohammad Khalessi, Ph.D. CEO/President PredictionProbe, Inc.

Probabilistic Technology * 07/16/96 Probabilistic Technology Y1, Y1, … Probabilistic Technology is a set of advanced predictive methods that allow for integration of uncertainties into process models and evaluation of the effects Input X1, X2, …. PROCESS Y = f (X1, X2,…) Output Y1, Y2, … Step 1 Step 3 Step 4 Step 2 l Utilizes physics laws, process rules, or empirical modeling techniques to construct process/output models Utilizes probability law to construct statistical models for Input Variables  2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved. * 9 17

Probabilistic Technology Optimizes Design, Performance, Number of Tests and More Probabilistic Technology provides 3 metrics to quantitatively evaluate design early in the decision process when no data is available 1. Most-Probable-Points Safety control systems Certification tests Reliability demonstration tests Critical combination of parameters Most likely failure points Many more Performance level = C1 Performance level = C2 2. Probability Information Reliability, risks, failure prob. Critical failure modes ID Performance range Most-likely performance value Safety-factor calibration Many more 3. Process Sensitivity Measures Key process variables & uncertainties Guidelines to develop test plans Guidelines for inspection & repair planning Guidelines to develop improvement plans Guidelines to develop control plans Guidelines to develop monitoring plans Many more  2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Technology Allows for Safer and Lighter Designs Uncertainties significantly impact the prediction accuracy. Probabilistic Technology can accurately identify the failure location and the magnitude of failure probability. Press COV = 10% Axial Load COV=5% Failure Prob. = 1.4% Press COV = 5% Axial Load COV=20% Failure Prob. = 3.5% Press COV = 5% Axial Load COV=5% Failure Prob. = 0.7% Finite element model of a fuel tank  2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Technology Eliminates or Minimizes Costly Changes * 07/16/96 Probabilistic Technology Eliminates or Minimizes Costly Changes  2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved. * 57 65