Key Facts, History and Projections ENROLMENT SUMMARY - Key Facts, History and Projections Presentation to the Partnership Table May 14, 2007 May 2007

Enrolment – DATA & FORECASTING NOTES Ministry of Education collects enrolment data from school boards. ADE (average daily enrolment) used for funding purposes is collected through the financial reporting cycle. Detailed ADE information includes full-time equivalent counts for various grade groupings – JK/SK, Grades 1 to 3, Grades 4 to 8, Secondary. ADE is also collected for each individual school. Other enrolment data collected by the ministry includes: headcount enrolment by individual grades and schools (elementary and secondary); elementary class size reports. As part of the financial/fiscal planning cycle, school boards submit enrolment projections. For the 2007-08 planning cycle, school boards submitted a two-year enrolment projection. Ministry develops internal enrolment projections for its multi-year plan. School-aged demographic trends and student retention rates are key inputs used to construct ministry's long-term projections. Internal/Ministry projections supplement the short-term board projections. May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – TOTAL May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – TOTAL TOTAL (Elem + Sec) Enrolment History # of School Boards Declining Growing 1999-00 37 35 2000-01 34 38 2001-02 36 2002-03 41 31 2003-04 59 13 2004-05 39 33 2005-06 43 29 2006-07 54 18 May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – ELEMENTARY May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – ELEMENTARY ELEMENTARY Enrolment History # of School Boards Declining Growing 1999-00 43 29 2000-01 37 35 2001-02 42 30 2002-03 2003-04 52 20 2004-05 59 13 2005-06 56 16 2006-07 63 9 May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3) May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3) PRIMARY (JK to Gr 3) Enrolment History # of School Boards Declining Growing 1999-00 54 18 2000-01 46 26 2001-02 59 13 2002-03 55 17 2003-04 60 12 2004-05 63 9 2005-06 2006-07 58 14 May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – JR/Inter (Gr 4 to 8) May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – JR/Inter (Gr 4 to 8) JUNIOUR/INTERMEDIATE (Gr 4 to 8) Enrolment History # of School Boards Declining Growing 1999-00 31 41 2000-01 32 40 2001-02 26 46 2002-03 27 45 2003-04 37 35 2004-05 49 23 2005-06 55 17 2006-07 62 10 May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – SECONDARY May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – SECONDARY SECONDARY Enrolment History # of School Boards Declining Growing 1999-00 26 44 2000-01 29 41 2001-02 28 42 2002-03 2003-04 61 9 2004-05 18 52 2005-06 23 47 2006-07 May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – 2005-06 Cohorts May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – REGIONAL TRENDS May 2007

Enrolment HISTORY – Board Size May 2007

Enrolment PROJECTIONS – TOTAL May 2007

Enrolment PROJECTIONS – ELEMENTARY May 2007

Enrolment PROJECTIONS – SECONDARY May 2007

Enrolment PROJECTIONS – REGIONAL TRENDS May 2007

Enrolment and Demographics - PROJECTIONS May 2007

Enrolment and Demographics - SUMMARY Enrolment peaked in 2002-03, has been on the decline through 2006-07 and is projected to decline over the next four years. Elementary enrolment is declining and secondary enrolment is increasing. Between 1998-99 and 2002-03, TOTAL ADE grew by almost 50,000 – a cumulative growth of 2.5%. Between 2002-03 and 2006-07, TOTAL ADE declined by over 50,000 – a cumulative decline of 2.5%. Over the next four year projection period (2007-08 to 2010-11), TOTAL ADE is projected to decline by about 50,000 – a cumulative decline of 2.6%. An increasingly large number of boards have been experiencing declining enrolment. Between 2002-03 and 2006-07, 52 school boards declined; 17 of these 52 schools boards declined by at least 10%. Between 2007-08 and 2010-11, 56 school boards are projected to decline in enrolment; 15 of these 56 schools boards are projected to decline by at least 10%. Over the period between 2002-03 and 2010-11, 27 school boards are expected to decline by 15% or more; another 11 boards are expected to decline by 10-15%. GTA is the only region projected to grow; Northern Ontario will experience the largest decline. Demographic projections of school-aged population through year 2014 suggest: Provincial decline is expected to continue; decline in elementary-aged cohort being the primary factor. GTA, the only growth area in the Province between 2002 and 2006, will be the only area in the province expected to experience any marginal growth. Northern Ontario will continue to experience the largest decline. Central, East and South Western Ontario regions are expected to experience declines larger than their current decline. New demographic projections, based on 2006 Census will be available in fall 2008. May 2007

Discussion Questions What planning do we need to undertake to deal with the projected enrolment changes? What changes in policy or funding are required? What changes in school board planning processes are required? What is working and effective for boards with declining enrolment? May 2007