Corn Outlook POET Sioux Falls, South Dakota Apr. 21, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 91.7 Yield (bu./acre) 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 165.3 Production (mil. bu.) 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925 13,938 Beg. Stocks 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,331 Imports 28 29 162 35 25 Total Supply 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,781 15,294 Feed & Residual 4,795 4,557 4,335 5,300 5,400 Ethanol 5,019 5,000 4,648 Food, Seed, & Other 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,400 1,430 Exports 1,834 1,543 731 1,750 1,550 Total Use 13,055 12,528 11,111 13,450 13,380 Ending Stocks 1,914 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.60 3.90 Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13 2 2

Corn Acreage Top: 2014 Intended acres Bottom: Change from 2013 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Advance Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

2014/15 Crop Margins

Source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term Dry soils to start, but El Niño watch for summer 2013/14 USDA 2014/15 Unofficial Futures (4/18/14) Corn $4.60 $3.90 $4.68 $4.78 Soybeans $13.00 $9.65 $13.21 $12.07

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/