A prediction-based alternative to P values in regression models

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Presentation transcript:

A prediction-based alternative to P values in regression models Min Lu, BS, Hemant Ishwaran, PhD The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery Volume 155, Issue 3, Pages 1130-1136.e4 (March 2018) DOI: 10.1016/j.jtcvs.2017.08.056 Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Log-hazard function from Cox simulation example. The left panel displays the true log-hazard function, which includes the nonlinear term for tumor volume. The right panel displays the log-hazard function, assuming linear variables only. psa, Prostate-specific antigen. The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2018 155, 1130-1136.e4DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2017.08.056) Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure E1 Robustness of VIMP to the sample size. Logarithm of P value as a function of fraction of sample size for systolic heart failure data is shown (large negative values correspond to near zero P values). Values are calculated with 500 independently subsampled data sets. Horizontal line is log (0.05), the typical threshold used to identify a significant variable. Red boxplots indicate variables with interquartile values below the P-value cutoff. The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2018 155, 1130-1136.e4DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2017.08.056) Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure E2 Robustness of VIMP to the sample size. Subsampled data are the same as Figure E1, but where VIMP is now reported. Red boxplots indicate variables with interquartile values above zero. VIMP, Variable importance. The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2018 155, 1130-1136.e4DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2017.08.056) Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Prediction error calculated using in-sample (blue) and out-of-sample (red) bootstrap data. The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2018 155, 1130-1136.e4DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2017.08.056) Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions