Keo Chan Advisor: Rebecca Asch

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Benthic Assessments One benthic ecologists concerns and suggestions Fred Nichols USGS, retired.
Advertisements

El Niño. How do ocean currents affect weather and climate? Oceans store and transport heat. – High heat capacity – Stores and transports energy from the.
ECOSYSTEM JELLO… Kerim Aydin Bob Francis Pat Livingston.
Brief introduction on Logistic Regression
Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Peruvian anchovy Population Dynamics --progress report-- Yi Xu and Fei Chai June 2007.
Regression Analysis Once a linear relationship is defined, the independent variable can be used to forecast the dependent variable. Y ^ = bo + bX bo is.
G. Nolan 1, K.Lyons 1, S.Fennell 1, T. Mc Grath 1, D.Guihen 2, C.Cusack 1, C. Lynam 3 G. Nolan 1, K.Lyons 1, S.Fennell 1, T. Mc Grath 1, D.Guihen 2, C.Cusack.
Term paper topics due 1 week from today (Friday, October 17).
Ecological response to climate change Lilian Busse Scripps Institution of Oceanography ESP seminar June 9, 2006.
Long Term Temperature Variability of Santa Barbara Coutny By Courtney Keeney and Leila M.V. Carvalho.
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON SOME TROPICAL FISHERIES Ernesto A. Chávez & José Luis Castro-Ortiz CICIMAR, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
Monterey Bay Time Series - El Niños during and Transition from El Viejo to La Vieja - The age of dinoflagellates?
Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.
10/17/071 Read: Ch. 15, GSF Comparing Ecological Communities Part Two: Ordination.
Interest Rates and Business Cycles Fluctuations: a Focus on Higher Moments By Andrea Beccarini, University of L’Aquila, Italy.
Betsy Reardon GEO 387H: Physical Climatology
Utilizing Ecosystem Information to Improve Decision Support for Central California Salmon Project Acronym: Salmon Applied Forecasting, Assessment and Research.
DIRECT ORDINATION What kind of biological questions can we answer? How can we do it in CANOCO 4.5?
Choosing Your Test Spearman’s? Chi-squared? Mann-Whitney?
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis ICES/NAFO Decadal Symposium Santander, Spain May 12th 2011 The serial recruitment failure to North Sea.
Section for Coastal Ecology Technical University of Denmark National Institute of Aquatic Resources Habitat modeling: linking biology to abiotic predictors.
University of Warwick, Department of Sociology, 2014/15 SO 201: SSAASS (Surveys and Statistics) (Richard Lampard) Week 7 Logistic Regression I.
Marine Food Chains/Webs Energy from primary production is transferred up the trophic chain Each step is inefficient (~90% energy is lost) Shorter chains.
Interannual Time Scales: ENSO Decadal Time Scales: Basin Wide Variability (e.g. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation) Longer Time Scales:
ECODRIVE Ecosystem Change in the North Sea: Processes, Drivers, Future Scenarios 2009 – 2012 Overarching Theme Impact of Climate.
U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS ® ) IOOS ® Biological Observations Data Project A Multi-Agency Effort to Enable Access to Biological Observations.
The management of small pelagics. Comprise the 1/3 of the total world landings Comprise more than 50% of the total Mediterranean landings, while Two species,
Marine Food Chains/Webs Energy from primary production is transferred up the trophic chain Each step is inefficient (~90% energy is lost) Shorter chains.
Commercial Fishery Landings in Santa Barbara
The Effect of on By:. Purpose The purpose of this project was to.
Stepwise change in time series Radical change of between alternative stable states (attractors) Resistance, resilience Reversibility, trajectory of change.
Time scales of physics vs. biology ENSO effects on biology Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Interannual Time Scales: ENSO Decadal Time Scales: Basin Wide Variability (e.g. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation) Longer Time Scales:
Modeling North Pacific Decadal Variations and Their Teleconnection Patterns Speaker/ Pei-Ning Kirsten Feng Advisor/ Yu-Heng Tseng.
Sources of Skill and Error in Long Range Columbia River Streamflow Forecasts: A Comparison of the Role of Hydrologic State Variables and Winter Climate.
Assessing the Influence of Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Change on Snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the.
Climate Change and Subarctic Fisheries L. Hamilton ARCSS Synthesis Retreat, 2004.
1 Assessing Vulnerability of Living Marine Resources in a Changing Climate Roger Griffis Climate Change Coordinator, NOAA Fisheries Service.
BACC II progress Anders Omstedt. BALTEX-BACC-HELCOM assessment Department of Earth Sciences.
OEAS 604: Final Exam Tuesday, 8 December 8:30 – 11:30 pm Room 3200, Research Innovation Building I Exam is cumulative Questions similar to quizzes with.
Incorporation of Climate-Ocean Information in Short- and Medium Term Sprat Predictions in the Baltic Sea Acknowledgements: ICES Baltic Fish. Assess. WG.
Dramatic declines in Euphausia pacifica abundance in the East China Sea: response to global warming? Zhaoli XU, Dong ZHANG East China Sea Fisheries Research.
UBC/UW 2011 Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium Friday, September 30, 2011 DIAGNOSIS OF CHANGING COOL SEASON PRECIPITATION STATISTICS IN THE WESTERN.
“The extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) was constructed using the most recently available International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere.
What are the key uncertainties? 1.The Common Causes and Remarkability of Recent Changes in the Arctic System 2.The Nature and Importance of Threshold Events,
The influence of climate on cod, capelin and herring in the Barents Sea Dag Ø. Hjermann (CEES, Oslo) Nils Chr. Stenseth (CEES, Oslo & IMR, Bergen) Geir.
Using Regional Models to Assess the Relative Effects of Stressors Lester L. Yuan National Center for Environmental Assessment U.S. Environmental Protection.
North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity (NPCREP) NOAA Fisheries Ned Cyr NOAA Fisheries Service Office of Science and Technology Silver.
THE USE OF BENTHIC MACROINVERTEBRATE TRAITS TO ASSESS CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSES AND VULNERABILITIES Anna Hamilton (Tetra Tech), Britta Bierwagen (US EPA),
Direct and Indirect Effects of Water Velocity on Foraging Success in a Stream-dwelling Fish Species Les Warren, Morgan Freeburg. Mentor - Dr. David Lonzarich,
Predicting Energy Consumption in Buildings using Multiple Linear Regression Introduction Linear regression is used to model energy consumption in buildings.
Quadrat Sampling Chi-squared Test
Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems
Spatial Modes of Salinity and Temperature Comparison with PDO index
Preview Science Concepts Using Science Graphics Writing Skills.
Role of mesopelagic fishes in the marine ecosystem
Time scales of physics vs. biology
QNT 351 Perfect Education/ qnt351.com.
Variation of Physical Habitat
The t distribution and the independent sample t-test
Hydrologic Forecasting
Proxy Measures of Past Climates
An Inconvenient Truth………..
Time scales of physics vs. biology
Jensen, et. al Winter distribution of blue crab Callinectes sapidus in Chesapeake Bay: application and cross-validation of a two-stage generalized.
Regression Assumptions
Regression Forecasting and Model Building
Graph Review Skills Needed Identify the relationship in the graph
Population Changes Overview Questions
Correlation and Causality
Presentation transcript:

Keo Chan Advisor: Rebecca Asch Detecting thresholds in relationships between climate and marine fishes in the California Current System Keo Chan Advisor: Rebecca Asch

Overview Q: What can past relationships between fish distribution and environmental variables tell us about what will happen in unprecedented warming conditions? Using presence/absence data collected by CalCOFI, which covers >60 years of fish larvae data Tracking 6 environmental variables - month, temperature, salinity, O2, distance from shore, and abundance of zooplankton (food)

PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation Adjusted to filter out the effect of global warming Significant interannual-to-decadal variation Cool → Warm, as well as other changes Focusing at 1951-1998 data <-Source: NOAA

Methods Four species of fish chosen with contrasting attributes Geographic spawner/Variable abundance: Anchovy Geographic spawner/Stable abundance: California lanternfish Environmental spawner/Variable abundance: Sardine Environmental spawner/Stable abundance: Hake GAM - Generalized additive model Combine smoothing (spline) techniques with regressions Relationships are often nonlinear Stepwise procedure to refine model fit

Sardine (env spawner-variable abundance) Top is earlier, cool period → Cool period, only month and zoop are significant Bottom is later, warm period Month Zoop abundance Sardine presence/absence Someone may ask you why the presence/absence data aren’t just ones and zeros in these graphs. Here is the answer in case you get this question. These graphs are showing the probability of presence of sardine after a logit transformation. The logit transformation is needed so that you can confirm to model assumptions (i.e., data have a normal distribution). If the inverse transformation were applied, the data would go between 0 and 1 again. Temperature (°C) Salinity O2 Dist to shore Month Zoop abundance

Sardine analysis Results suggest abundance might play a large role Basin model of distribution Very sensitive to food availability at low abundance (cool regime), shows selectiveness for other variables in warm period Sardine larvae are mainly found in area with temperatures between 12-16° C At high abundance, sardine exploit their niche and can afford to show preference for more variables Source: CalCOFI Atlas 34

Conclusions Suggests relationship between fish and the environment may change with climate change, perhaps even flipping Even traditional geographic spawners are susceptible to changes in distribution Changes in abundance have large effects on what kind of environment fish prefer Some species will likely benefit while others will suffer For those suffering, they may become more reliant on the distribution of their sources of food Fish are consistent in which month they spawn, with slightly variability in the degree to which they prefer that month

Next steps Other fish species besides these 4 Analyze more recent PDO phases Threshold gams More research on zooplankton vs climate relationships

Skills learned Coding in Matlab and R Biological statistics and modelling Linking geoscience to the real world human ecosystem effects

Thanks to R Asch, J Sobolewska and Dr. Sarmiento Questions? Thanks to R Asch, J Sobolewska and Dr. Sarmiento