Assessment of the effectiveness of reported Water Framework Directive Programmes of Measures (PoMs) A.Pistocchi, A.Aloe, S.Bizzi, F.Bouraoui, P.Burek, A.de Roo, B.Grizzetti, W.van de Bund, C.Liquete, M.Pastori, F.Salas, A.Stips, C.Weissteiner, G.Bidoglio JRC IES H01

Policy questions for the assessment “The need for a reliable data basis for PoMs” (par. 4.1 COM draft, 2014, annex) “Part I”: Are we identifying all relevant pressures and in a homogeneous and consistent way across the EU? “What needs to be done”(par. 4.2 COM draft, 2014, annex) “Part II”: Are we addressing them appropriately in the PoMs? [do we agree on the “best” measures to adopt?] “Part III”: By fully implementing a given PoM, are we really achieving the WFD goals? What is the risk of failure? Which preventive/corrective actions should be taken? The JRC is applying its Integrated Water Modelling Platform (IWMP) to help answering these questions.

Part I – Pan-European scale screening of the pressures addressed by member states “Are we identifying all relevant pressures in a homogeneous and consistent way across the EU?“ JRC Work Concept presented/discussed @ WG PoM march 2014 Analysis completed June 2014 (report sent to DG ENV on 6/6/14) Discussion with DG ENV started November 2014 Publication of report: end of March 2015. [link to report draft] 9 December 2018

Pressures addressed until now Rivers Abstractions Pollution, diffuse/point Hydromorphological alterations Aquifers Pollution, diffuse Saltwater intrusion Transitional and coastal Pollution, hydromorphological alterations [Not yet addressed, in particular: lakes (all pressures); aquifers (abstractions)] 9 December 2018

Example: Reported pressures - surface waters abstractions Ranking based on % of river length at risk due to abstractions 9 December 2018

Example: JRC indicators - surface waters abstractions LISFLOOD model Simulated Water balance (Impact assessment of the Water Blueprint) 9 December 2018

EC DG JRC Indicators vs RPRs in PoMs Class 1: both RPRs and European indicators rank the RBD relatively high, indicating a problem.   Class 2: both RPRs and European indicators rank the RBD relatively low, indicating less of a problem. Class 3: RPRs rank the RBD relatively high, while European indicators rank the RBD relatively low. Class 4: RPRs rank the RBD relatively low, while European indicators rank the RBD relatively high.

Pressure identification Classification: examples abstractions Diffuse pollution 9 December 2018

Summary of results The comparison suggests that the identification of relevant pressures at the continental scale is not always the same as at the national and regional scale, causing difficulties in the prioritization of investments and doubts about the effectiveness of envisaged measures. 9 December 2018

Limitations with models and reported pressures incompleteness semantic uncertainty, European indicators model uncertainties Errors/ lack of data (example: dams, hydromorphology). Analysis of Discrepancies  Collaborative improvement of assessments from both sides  more effective measures. Reported pressures may suffer from incompleteness and semantic uncertainty, while European indicators suffer from model uncertainties and errors. A discussion of differences between European indicators and river basin assessments in the light of agreed-upon reporting and model limitations may help to collaboratively improve the assessment from both sides, and consequently to design more effectively the measures to be implemented at the respective levels. Use of the results from this analysis: “Intercalibration” of pressure assessment Identification of knowledge gaps Prioritization of actions Nudging on poorly reporting MSs 9 December 2018

Way forward: “part II”. Potential effectiveness and limitations of measures to manage impacts on European waters Are we addressing pressure impacts appropriately in the PoMs? [do we agree on the “best” measures to adopt?] 9 December 2018

In practice Review of literature Review, update and integration of JRC hydro-economic model assessments (IWMP) Interdisciplinary discussion workshops among JRC staff (open to contributions from external experts, coverage of participation costs depending on the budget available) Production of European-scale synthetic judgments (possibly maps) on: “What is the level of (cost-) effectiveness of a given (type of) measure in a given context, given the pressures and status of water bodies?” “Which public/private investments might be mobilized to implement a given (type of) measure?” “What is the potential for boosting jobs/growth from implementing a (given type of) measure?” 9 December 2018

Measures addressed (tentative list) Water-related directives art. 11(a) and beyond – SUPPLEMENTARY Management of the water balance: Water saving requirements and reuse potential art. 11(c) Water storage requirements (also to address reduced availability under climate scenarios) – SUPPLEMENTARY Rainwater harvesting – SUPPLEMENTARY Desalination – SUPPLEMENTARY Establishing minimum flow regimes – SUPPLEMENTARY Water pricing (domestic, industrial sector; agriculture) art. 11(b) Natural water retention measures for flood mitigation, water availability, nutrient and sediment control – SUPPLEMENTARY Floodplains Agricultural land management Urban greening and mitigation of urban sprawl Forests Coastal zones management – SUPPLEMENTARY (Hydromorphological) Restoration of surface water bodies art. 11(l) 9 December 2018

Tentative timeline - June 2014: “part I” delivered (final release march ’15) - July 2015: “part II” delivered on example measures (final release march ‘16) - June 2016: “part III” for the reporting of 2nd RBMPs. To be discussed. 9 December 2018