Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, Beijing, China

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Presentation transcript:

Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, Beijing, China Consumption Based Carbon Accounting systems and global carbon flows: impacts on national and global climate policies Annela Anger-Kraavi Cambridge Econometrics Addressing Consumption-based Emissions: A Chinese Perspective 10th November 2015 Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, Beijing, China

Climate policy Doha Amendments > 2020 Paris Agreement (INDCs) > 2020 - 2030 Marrakesh (?)…. (?) > 2030…. CBDR-RC – historical and traded

Emissions trends

Emissions trends

Emissions trends

Historic trend - US

Historic trend - US and EU-15 OECD territorial p.c. emissions now back to level of 1960s; consumption footprint emissions c 10% below 2008

Historic trend - US, EU-15 and China China territorial per-cap equals EU-15, of today and 1960!

Historic trend - US, EU-15, China, Mexico and Brazil

Expected outcome A policy portfolio of consumption-based policies that shifts the burden back to developed countries and results in reduction of production and consumption based emissions in developing countries

Expected outcome Additional to production-based/more traditional polices and national commitments

Models FIDELIO (IPTS, Spain) a dynamic econometric input-output model based on Eurostat's supply and use tables and the WIOD

Models EXIOMOD (TNO, Netherlands) a Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on detailed EXIOBASE MREEIO

Models E3ME (Cambridge Econometrics, UK) macroeconometric energy-environment-economy (E3) model

Scenarios 2020- 2050: Reference scenarios IEA WEO 2014 current policies IEA WEO 2014 current policies + Paris COP21 pledges (INDCs)

Scenarios 2020- 2050: Policy scenarios – indirect (supply chain) indirect + direct emissions (end use related emissions)

Scenarios 2020- 2050 will give us: Outputs, changes in GDP, Employment, trade, investment, recourse use, GHG and non-GHG emissions

Emissions

Policy issues No accounting standards for consumption based emissions

Policy issues No monitoring, reporting and verification Current methods (differences <30%)

Thank You! aak@camecon.com