Housing Needs Assessment Nederland, Colorado 2014

Housing Needs Assessment Primary Work Elements Analyzed more than 100 demographic & economic metrics Conducted nearly 30 community stakeholder interviews Completed a resident survey of more than 200 residents Surveyed 35 rental properties in Nederland (99 units) Evaluated Nederland’s and Region’s for-sale housing data on 422 units (85 available/337 sold) Evaluated various “other housing factors” affecting the PSA housing market (i.e. community services, crime, education, etc.) Completed a housing gap analysis by tenure and affordability for Nederland (PSA) and Region (SSA) Identified vacant land and buildings as potential opportunities for future residential development Provided recommendations to address housing needs & establish priorities

Geographic Study Areas Primary Study Area: Region Secondary Study Area: Region Note: SSA includes PSA

Demographic Highlights Various Demographic Comparisons Education Poverty Tenure Size

Demographic Highlights Population Trends PSA Population increased 2.9% from 2000 to 2010 (< SSA & County) PSA Population growth projected at 7.5% from 2010 to 2018 (fastest when compared with SSA and County) Largest share of PSA POP age 35 to 44 years Smallest share of PSA POP age 65 to 74 & 75+ years PSA greatest projected decline ages 35 to 44 years PSA greatest projected growth ages 65-74 years and 75+ years PSA median age (41 years) much higher than County (36.3 years) and State (36.5 years)

Demographic Highlights Household Trends PSA HHs grew 7.0% from 2000 to 2010 (slowest of the areas) Faster projected PSA HH growth 8.3% from 2010 to 2018 (faster growth than SSA and County) Largest share of HHs in PSA ages 35-44 and ages 45-54; smallest among ages 65-74 and ages 75+ Largest HH growth in PSA b/w 2013-18 ages 65-74 (31, 58.5%) Largest HH decline in PSA b/w 2013-18 ages 35-44 (-45, -28.7%)

Household Income Trends Demographic Highlights Household Income Trends PSA has highest share of high-income ($100K+) HHs, but lowest share of moderate-income ($40k to $60k+) HHs in 2013 PSA has (2013) & will have (2018) the highest median HH income compared with other study areas

Demographic Highlights PSA AND SSA Higher and increasing median age. Lower share of younger residents (under age 25). Faster growth rates among senior adult residents ages 65 and older. Smaller household sizes. Higher share of one- and two-person households. Lower share of large household formations (five-person+). Higher share of well-educated residents. Lower share of residents living in poverty. Higher share of households earning more than $60,000 annually. Higher overall median household income.

Demographic Highlights Theme Maps Owner Share Renter Share Pop. Age 20-34 Pop. Age 55+

Demographic Highlights Theme Maps Median Income Pop. Density Crime Index Drive Times

Economic Highlights Retail Trade (19.8%) and Accommodation & Food Service (17.2%) represents largest shares of the PSA labor force. From 2008 to 2010, Boulder County employment base declined by 7,984 (4.7%) County employment base has grown each of past 4 years 2013 employment base surpassed pre-recession levels Unemployment Rates Total Employment

Housing Supply – Existing Challenges Overcrowded and Cost-Burdened Housing Share (0.8%) PSA owner households live in overcrowded* housing similar to region & county *More than one person per room One-third of all PSA renter-households are cost burdened* *Pay over 30% of income towards housing costs (29.0% of owner-households)

Surveyed Rental Housing Inventory By Bedroom Type Housing Supply – Rental (Apartments) Surveyed Rental Housing Inventory By Bedroom Type Bedrooms Units Vacant Occup. Rate Rent Range Average Studio 12 100.0% $510-$610 $538 One-Bedroom 29 1 96.6% $400-$1,395 $783 Two-Bedroom 46 97.8% $944 Three-Bedroom 11 $610-$1,900 $1,255 Four-Bedroom 0.0% $2,500 Totals 99 3 97.0% - FEW VACANT OPTIONS: PSA has 3 vacancies MISMATCH: Majority of Supply not Affordable to Most Renters

Rental Housing Inventory By Year Built Housing Supply – Rental (Apartments) Rental Housing Inventory By Year Built Year Built Units Vacant Occup. Rate Rent Range Pre-1970 32 2 93.7% $510-$1,750 1970-1979 30 100.0% $400-$1,100 1980-1989 29 $460-$1,900 1990-1999 6 1 83.4% $1,100-$2,500 2000-2009 N/A 2010-2014 - Totals 99 3 97.0% MOSTLY OLDER PRODUCT: Nearly 2/3 of identified rentals were built prior to 1980; highest share built prior to 1970

Nederland, Colorado Surveyed Rental Housing Inventory By Quality Level Housing Supply – Rental (Apartments) Nederland, Colorado Surveyed Rental Housing Inventory By Quality Level Quality Level Units Vacant Occupancy Rate Rent Range A - B 18 100.0% $460-$1,900 C 58 3 94.8% $515-$2,500 D 23 $400-$850 F Totals 99 97.0% LIMITED AMOUNT OF GOOD QUALITY PRODUCT: Half of the product “Fair” and one-fourth “Poor”

Housing Supply – Rental (Apartments)

Housing Gap Estimates - Rental Methodology considered household growth, units for balanced market, substandard housing, and demolitions; conducted by income level Rental housing demand for at least 60 new PSA units by 2018 Note: Demand estimates represent potential units by 2018 (would assume all product types, prices and locations developed) 2013 - 2018 Rental Demand Potential by Income Level & Rent Nederland, Colorado Primary Study Area Household Income Range Less Than $30,000 $30,000-$60,000 $60,000+ Rent Affordability Less Than $750 $750-$1,500 $1,500+ New Income-Qualified Renter Household -14 20 27 Units Needed for Balanced Market 10 8 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2018 176 62 3 Less Residential Units in the Development Pipeline Overall Region (SSA) Units of Potential Support by 2018 172 90 38 Total Units of Potential Support in Nederland (PSA) 26-34 14-18 6-8

Housing Supply – For-sale (Historical) For-Sale/Sold Housing Supply Type PSA Nederland SSA Region Available 13 85 Sold 108 337 Total 121 422 PSA & SSA median home prices have increased in each of the past three years. FOR-SALE HOUSING BY YEAR SOLD Year Sold PSA (Nederland) SSA (Region) Units Change Median Price 2010 23 - $345,000 58 2011 20 -13.0% $253,550 -26.5% 66 13.8% $277,500 -19.6% 2012 29 45.0% $305,000 20.3% 83 25.8% $296,500 6.8% 2013 0.0% $310,500 1.8% 99 19.3% $315,000 6.2% 2014* 7 -75.9% $331,000 6.6% 31 -68.7% $321,500 2.1% *Through June 2014

Housing Supply – For-sale (Historical) Nearly 45% of homes sold since 2010 in PSA were built after 1990 (39.8% in SSA) One-fifth of homes sold since 2010 in PSA were built before 1960 (14.5% in SSA)

Housing Supply – For-sale (Historical) The largest shares of housing sold by price point are at $350,000 and up Very few homes sold that are priced under $250,000

Housing Supply – For-sale (Historical)

Housing Supply – For-sale (Available) PSA – TOWN OF NEDERLAND Summary of Active For-Sale Housing Supply by Bedrooms (As of June 16, 2014) Homes Listed Avg. Baths Avg. Square Feet Year Built Price Range Median List Price Median Price Sq. Ft. Avg. Days on Market 3 1.0 888 1946 $245,900 - $350,000 $349,900 $394.03 109 8 2.5 2,418 1983 $149,900 - $429,000 $379,950 $157.13 183 1 2.0 2,334 1993 $412,000 $176.52 42 2,400 1945 $335,000 $139.58 11 13 2,057 1972 $357,000 $173.55 142 Source: Multiple Listing Services, Boulder County Assessor’s Office, and Bowen National Research LIMITED SUPPLY: Few For-sale Housing Options Available in PSA

MISMATCH: Majority of Supply not Affordable to Most PSA Residents Housing Supply – For-sale (Available) SSA - REGION Summary of Active For-Sale Housing Supply by Bedrooms (As of June 16, 2014) Bedrooms Homes Listed Avg. Baths Avg. Square Feet Year Built Price Range Median List Price Median Price Sq. Ft. Average Days on Market One-Br. 5 1.0 777 1940 $108,000-$429,000 $135,000 $173.75 39 Two-Br. 19 1,393 1957 $100,000-$393,750 $255,900 $183.70 68 Three-Br. 47 3.0 2,477 1985 $149,900-$699,000 $389,000 $157.04 76 Four-Br. 11 2,927 1988 $275,000-$550,000 $424,500 $145.03 45 Five-Br. 3 3,367 1983 $299,900-$690,000 $335,000 $99.50 295 Total 85 2.0 2,224 1976 $100,000-$699,000 $350,000 $157.37 Source: Multiple Listing Services, Boulder County Assessor’s Office, and Bowen National Research MISMATCH: Majority of Supply not Affordable to Most PSA Residents

Housing Supply – For-sale (Available) Virtually no product available for purchase priced under $325,000 in PSA (Nederland) & few affordable options in the entire SSA (Region)

Housing Supply – For-sale (Available)

Housing Gap Estimates – For-Sale Methodology considered HH growth, units for balanced market, substandard housing, and demolitions; conducted by income level Overall housing demand for up to 49 new units by 2018 Note: Demand estimates represent potential units by 2018 (would assume all product types, prices and locations developed) 2013-2018 For-Sale Housing Demand by Income Level & Price Point Nederland, Colorado Primary Study Area Household Income Range < $30,000 $30,000-$59,999 $60,000-$99,999 $100,000+ Housing Price Affordability < $100,000 $100,000-$200,000 $200,000-$300,000 $300,000+ New Owner-Occupied Household Growth 42 36 37 49 Housing Units Needed for Balanced Market 20 30 24 -3 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2018 10 6 Less Product in Development Pipeline Overall Market (SSA) Units of Potential Support 72 61 46 Total Units of Potential Support in Nederland 11-14 9-12 7-9

Housing Development Opportunities/Capacity Nederland‘s Residential Development Capacity Identified 49 available properties that represent potential sites for residential development in the Nederland 4,900,000 square feet (113 acres) of land and 28,700 square feet of existing structures Likely buildable space has an estimated capacity to develop approximately 138 residential units vs. need of 109 residential units Limited base of available land and buildings in PSA requires town to be selective in housing products, physical locations and project sizes

Housing Development Opportunities/Locations

Nederland Primary Housing Challenges Conclusions Nederland Primary Housing Challenges Rapidly increasing base of seniors and empty nesters who will require housing to meet their specific needs Few available housing options for current & potential residents, forcing people into housing they don’t want or can’t afford Lack of housing is a likely contributing factor to loss of younger residents (<age 25) With limited new product added to market in recent years, existing supply is aging and will need to be maintained and/or improved Lack of currently available and buildable sites (vacant land and existing buildings) may pose an issue if demographic growth projections materialize

Nederland Housing Strategies Recommendations Nederland Housing Strategies Remove/Reduce Substandard Housing From Market Support Efforts to Renovate, Repair and Maintain Existing Housing Support the Development of Affordable & Moderately-priced Housing Support/Expand First-Time and Lower-income Homebuyer Programs Attract/Encourage Private-Sector Residential Development/Investment Monitor potential conversion of housing to marijuana grow houses Encourage/Support Adaptive Reuse of Vacant Structures Develop plan to expand space to accommodate future housing

Nederland Housing Product Considerations Recommendations Nederland Housing Product Considerations Expand Senior housing product to meet growing base of older adult households, particularly lower-income elderly households with less than $30k annual income; Senior housing needs could be met through adaptive reuse of existing structures and newly-built cottage-style units, with a balanced mix of one- and two-bedroom units Affordability (via subsidies, tax credits, etc.) remains an important factor for a majority of housing – rents & housing prices need to be kept affordable to households with incomes below $30,000. Housing to accommodate 1-and 2-person smaller household sizes, including housing for young adult/professionals Expand base of for-sale product priced below $200,000 to retain and attract moderate income households, particularly with incomes between $30k & $60k

Bowen National Research 155 E. Columbus St., Suite 220 Contact Information Patrick M. Bowen Bowen National Research 155 E. Columbus St., Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 Phone: 614-833-9300 E-Mail: patrickb@bowennational.com