TOPICS RELATED TO CHANGE August 2018

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Presentation transcript:

TOPICS RELATED TO CHANGE August 2018 Robin Matthews Professor Emeritus Kingston University Business School London JM Keynes Professor of Management RANEPA Moscow Further papers by robin Matthews can be found at http://robindcmatthews.com http://www.tcib.org.uk/about.html. Also http://kpp-russia.ru and http://www.russtrategy.ru. http://kingston.ac.uk/CIPB.ph

(current system state) T Past Future upside System state possible futures possible causes probable futures Probable causes possible causes possible futures Now (current system state) T downside robindcmatthews.com

Evolution and change TYPES OF SYSTEM CHANGE TTYPES OF ypest Random Change refers to the transition between one system state and another. Evolution is change directed by processes of natural selection and random mutation TTYPES OF ypest Random no pattern Normal distribution Bell shaped or approximately so Fat tailed distributions change on all scales possible; Black Swans Deterministic predictable iff information perfect Chaotic Deterministic but SDIC Catastrophic Singularity and great extinctions Self ordered criticality Attraction to tipping points; major (phase) transitions. TYPES OF SYSTEM CHANGE change Evolution 12/9/2018

Some issues to consider Grenfell Tower Me Too Movement Global Warming Path Dependence Black Swans Singularity Law of accelerating change Artificial Intelligence Interaction between financial and non financial sectors Restructuring Competitive landscapes Development and poverty

META MODEL INNER DYNAMICS DYNAMICS GRAMMAR OUTER DYNAMICSOUTER PAYOFFS Mandala robindcmatthews.com

organization grammar conceptual Action 12/9/2018 robindcmatthews.com

Fractal images source http://www.google.com/images/sdsc.edu

The internet P(k) ≈ Ck – α Many connections Low frequency 𝑃(𝑘) = 𝐶 𝑘 𝛼 The diagram illustrates the inverse relationship between the degree of connectivity P(k) and the number of websites (k) Few connections high frequency The internet robindcmatthews.com

THE FUTURE (outer dynamics) 1. What is the future outlook and 2 THE FUTURE (outer dynamics) 1.What is the future outlook and 2. What are the risks for business? Use the diagram below in your presentation robindcmatthews.com