Marty Ralph Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at

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Presentation transcript:

Tropical surge 29 Nov – 2 Dec 2014 and Landfall Conditions at 800 AM PT on 2 Dec Marty Ralph Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography SSM/I images from NOAA/PSD - Wick http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/psd2/coastal/satres/data/images/wx_cl/wvp/

Track emerging AR signature Near the low (IWV > 3 cm) Track circulation center as inferred from SSM/I IWV pattern Track northern edge of tropical surge (IWV = 4 cm)

Tropical surge and developing cut-off low – IWV isochrones 27 PM 28 AM 28 PM 29 AM Day of month (Nov or Dec) and AM or PM composite Contours are SSM/I-observed IWV = 4 cm contour marking the north edge of tropical water vapor reservoir 100 W 120 W 140 W 160 W

Tropical surge and developing cut-off low – IWV isochrones 27 PM 28 AM 28 PM 29 AM 29 PM Day of month (Nov or Dec) and AM or PM composite Contours are SSM/I-observed IWV = 4 cm contour marking the north edge of tropical water vapor reservoir 100 W 120 W 140 W 160 W

Tropical surge and developing cut-off low – IWV isochrones 27 PM 28 AM 28 PM 29 AM 29 PM 30 AM Day of month (Nov or Dec) and AM or PM composite Contours are SSM/I-observed IWV = 4 cm contour marking the north edge of tropical water vapor reservoir 100 W 120 W 140 W 160 W

Tropical surge and developing cut-off low – IWV isochrones 27 PM 28 AM 28 PM 29 AM 29 PM 30 AM 30 PM Day of month (Nov or Dec) and AM or PM composite Low center from SSM/I Contours are SSM/I-observed IWV = 4 cm contour marking the north edge of tropical water vapor reservoir 100 W 120 W 140 W 160 W

Tropical surge and developing cut-off low – IWV isochrones 27 PM 28 AM 28 PM 29 AM 29 PM 30 AM 30 PM 01 AM Day of month (Nov or Dec) and AM or PM composite Low center from SSM/I IWV > 3 cm near cut-off low Contours are SSM/I-observed IWV = 4 cm contour marking the north edge of tropical water vapor reservoir 100 W 120 W 140 W 160 W

Tropical surge and developing cut-off low – IWV isochrones 27 PM 28 AM 28 PM 29 AM 29 PM 30 AM 30 PM 01 AM 01 PM Day of month (Nov or Dec) and AM or PM composite Low center from SSM/I IWV > 3 cm near cut-off low Contours are SSM/I-observed IWV = 4 cm contour marking the north edge of tropical water vapor reservoir 100 W 120 W 140 W 160 W

Tropical surge and developing cut-off low – IWV isochrones 27 PM 28 AM 28 PM 29 AM 29 PM 30 AM 30 PM 01 AM 01 PM Day of month (Nov or Dec) and AM or PM composite 02 11 Z Low center from SSM/I IWV > 3 cm near cut-off low Contours are SSM/I-observed IWV = 4 cm contour marking the north edge of tropical water vapor reservoir

GPS-Met IWV Network Obs At 600 AM PT 2 Dec 2014 Note the broad area of near or > 3 cm IWV Note the max IWV value of 3.9 cm marks The leading edge of the > 4 cm tropical surge 600 AM PT Tues 2 Dec

Snow-level radar Network Obs At 830 AM PT 2 Dec 2014 Snow levels in landfalling storm 7000 ft in northern Sierra 8000 ft in coastal (Russian River) area 10000 ft in southern Sierra 12000 ft in LA mountains 830 AM PT 2 Dec

01 PM

01 AM

30 PM

Original to scale 100 W 120 W 140 W 160 W 35 N 45 N 25 N 15 N 5 N 27 PM 28 AM 28 PM 29 AM 29 PM 30 AM 30 PM 01 AM 01 PM Day of month (Nov or Dec) and AM or PM composite