Update on Cash Crops/Winter Cereals Coleman Research Group Presentation Jan. 24, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 821 Imports 8 28 29 162 35 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,781 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,557 4,335 5,300 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,648 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,400 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 731 1,450 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,111 13,150 Ending Stocks 1,631 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.3 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,289 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 141 Imports 15 14 16 36 25 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,454 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,700 Seed & Residual 110 130 88 90 109 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,495 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,099 3,304 Ending Stocks 150 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.2 Yield (bu./acre) 44.5 46.3 43.7 47.2 Production (mil. bu.) 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,266 2,130 Beg. Stocks 657 976 862 743 718 Imports 119 97 112 123 160 Total Supply 2,993 3,279 2,974 3,131 3,008 Food 919 926 941 945 950 Seed 69 71 76 73 74 Feed & Residual 150 132 162 388 250 Exports 879 1,289 1,051 1,007 1,125 Total Use 2,018 2,417 2,231 2,414 2,399 Ending Stocks 608 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.87 5.70 7.24 7.77 6.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Bottom: % Change from last year Winter Wheat Acreage Top: 2014 Planted Acreage Bottom: % Change from last year Units: Thousand acres Source: USDA-NASS

Small Grains Summary Sorghum Barley Oats 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 6.2 8.1 3.6 3.5 2.8 3.0 Yield (bu./acre) 49.8 59.6 67.9 71.7 61.3 64.0 Production (mil. bu.) 247 389 220 215 64 66 Beg. Stocks 23 15 60 80 55 36 Imports 10 25 93 95 Total Supply 279 404 304 320 212 197 Feed & Residual 125 59 65 98 85 Food, Seed, & Other 100 155 76 77 Exports 160 9 1 2 Total Use 264 385 223 230 176 164 Ending Stocks 19 90 33 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.33 4.20 6.43 6.00 3.89 3.60 Source: USDA-NASS

Wheat Rust 3 types: stem, leaf, and stripe Affects wheat, barley, rye, and some grasses Spread by spores Prefers wet conditions Stem rust: 65-85 degrees Leaf rust: 59-71 degrees Stripe rust: 50-59 degrees

Oakley CL Wheat Oakley CL is a new hard red winter wheat Clearfield variety released this fall by the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station. This new variety has very good resistance to wheat streak mosaic virus and stripe rust. It is moderately susceptible to leaf rust. Its best area of adaptation will be western Kansas. Registered and certified seed of Oakley CL will be available in the fall of 2014.

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

World Weather Source: USDC and USDA 14 14

Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 17 17

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Wheat Export Pace Source: USDA-FAS

Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) 25 25

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

Current Corn Futures 4.40 4.34 4.29 Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014

Current Soybean Futures 12.57 10.77 10.57 Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014

Current Wheat Futures 6.65 5.98 5.75 Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014

Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Export strength/weakness, China’s moves in the corn & wheat markets Acreage allocation for 2014, Where do the extra acres go? 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 Futures (1/21/14) Corn $6.95 $4.40 $4.34 Soybeans $14.40 $12.50 $12.57 Wheat $7.77 $6.80 $6.65

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/