RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS Ron Conner Corps of Engineers

CORPS MISSIONS b PLANNING, CONSTRUCTING AND MANAGING WATER RESOURCE AND COASTAL STORM PROJECTS b EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS RISK MANAGEMENT VS RISK-BASED ANALYSIS

RISK MANAGEMENT b IDENTIFY OPTIONS b EVALUATE TRADE-OFFS b SELECT APPROPRIATE RISK-LEVEL

RISK-BASED ANALYSIS An approach to evaluation and decision making that explicitly, and to the extent practical analytically incorporate considerations of risk and uncertainty

FLOOD CONTROL EXAMPLE b PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS Frequency CurveFrequency Curve Rating CurveRating Curve Damage FunctionDamage Function b MONTE CARLO SIMULATION b MULTIPLE ITERATIONS

PLANNING EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT b Investment Decision- Making b Lengthy Study Process b Precision Expectation b Mission Scope b Immediate Need b 80 Percent Solution?

ONGOING PROGRAMS ONGOING PROGRAMS b Research and Development b Other Programs

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Risk Analysis for Civil Work Projects Risk Analysis for Dam Safety Procedures for applying risk analysis to dam safety investment decision making process Individual dams Case study: Alamo Dam Portfolio assessment Demonstration application Procedures for estimating potential lives saved

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Corps Water Management System - CWMS Project Status and Hydromet data in real-time Store, Manage and Report data, imagery and documents Model, Forecast and Simulate reservoir and river status Perform Decision Support Analysis and Information Dissemination Test Version Fielded at Four Sites

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Risk-Based Coastal Storm Model Application Across Program Areas Concept - Stage Incorporates Uncertainty in Key Variables such as inundation areas, beach retreat, damage function. Could be extended for Wind damage

OTHER PROGRAMS FLOOD DAMAGE DATA COLLECTION Data collection Generic residential depth-damage functions CEFIT Residential Commercial Flood Plain Inventory Primer Road Damages EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MODEL VALIDATION

OBJECTIVE An integrated program of risk management will bring together Federal and state programs to address the mitigation and the response and recovery from riverine and coastal flooding