The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018 2nd International Summer School in Economic modelling of Environment, Energy and Climate Load shifting as a demand side management technology for a 100% renewable electricity mix Behrang SHIRIZADEH

1. Equilibrium of Supply/Demand 2. Minimizing the cost The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 The main objectives: 1. Equilibrium of Supply/Demand 2. Minimizing the cost *All of this with 100% renewable electricity mix « Is it Feasible? »

+ Offshore wind Very high load curtailment and high cost The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Modelling PV + Onshore wind + Battery Very high load curtailment, high cost, not enough land for onshore installations + Offshore wind Very high load curtailment and high cost + Hydro-electricity (run-of-river, lake and PHS storage) High load curtailment (need for a dispatchable generation technology) and high cost + Bioenergy (Biogas) Still high load curtailment and high cost Main issue: inter-seasonal variation of load and VRE profiles + Inter-seasonal storage (Hydrogen and Methane) reasonable curtailment, resonable capacities and costs.

The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 INSTALLED CAPACITIES (GW) ADEME baseline Nega-Watt Our Results Offshore Wind 10 28 4.661 Onshore Wind 96.5 49 129.357 Solar PV 63 140 54.197 Biogas 0.9   15.407 Battery storage 12 0.652 PHS 7 9.3 Hydrogen/methane storage 17 32.397 DSM ? YEARLY ENERGY PRODUCTION (TWh) 41.9 247 24.188 261.2 359.037 81.6 147 71.034 8 2.6 (+15.9 biomass) 15 - 0.006 (24.4 - 6.1) = 18.3 12.97 (181.1 -86.8) for Gas & electricity 34.319 LCOE 49.018€/MWh Load Curtailment 10.51%

The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018

What if we add Demand Side Management technologies? Load Shifting! The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 What if we add Demand Side Management technologies? Load Shifting! Residential 22M Plug-in Hybrid and Electric vehicles in 2050, Residential and tertiary heating to be shed to the following hour, Intraday management of hot water heating tanks, Washing related end uses 2. Industry several industries: Steel, Aluminium, industrial cooling, cement, chemical, paper and pulp, chemicals, Ventilation, air conditioning, tertiary heating. ADEME (2017) RTE (2017)

What if we add Demand Side Management technologies? Load Shifting! The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 What if we add Demand Side Management technologies? Load Shifting! Residential 10.7M / 22M Hybrid and Electric vehicles 6.7GW & 15.6TWh/year 75% of residential and tertiary heating can be shed to the following hour 25GW and 35TWh/year (but only 1 hour ) maybe without any electrical heating? Intra-day management of hot water heating tanks 2.6GW & 6.7TWh/year Half of the washing related end-uses of 75% of the consumers 2.85GW & 7.7TWh/year ADEME (2017)

Load Shifting! Residential The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Load Shifting! Residential Home: 5.45GW; 14.4TWh/year, CAPEX = 37€/kW investment cost: 100€/house(smart metering)+ 50€/house(communication) Electric Vehicles: 6.7GW; 15.6TWh/year, CAPEX = 25€/kW investment cost: 50€/vehicle(communication) Advance/delay time = 6 hours (3+ and 3-) Lifetime = 20 years, WACC = 4%

The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Electrical heating France is a highly thermosensitive country, with high share of electrical heating: Barbier et al. (2018) 2016 consumption data

Results I. With electrical heating The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Results I. With electrical heating

The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 INSTALLED CAPACITIES (GW) ADEME baseline Nega-Watt No DSM With DSM Offshore Wind 10 28 4.661 5.176 Onshore Wind 96.5 49 129.357 120.864 Solar PV 63 140 54.197 66.282 Biogas 0.9   15.407 14.883 Battery storage 12 0.652 PHS 7 9.3 Hydrogen/methane storage 17 32.397 31.198 DSM - 12.15 YEARLY ENERGY PRODUCTION (TWh) 41.9 247 24.188 26.862 261.2 359.037 335.464 81.6 147 71.034 86.872 8 2.6 (+15.9 biomass) 15 0.006 (24.4 - 6.1) = 18.3 12.97 10.031 (181.1 -86.8) for Gas & electricity 34.319 29.753 LCOE 49.018€/MWh 48.701€/MWh Load curtailment 10.51% 9.65%

Results II. Without electrical heating The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Results II. Without electrical heating

The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 INSTALLED CAPACITIES (GW) ADEME baseline Nega-Watt No DSM With DSM With DSM – No heating Offshore Wind 10 28 4.661 5.176 4.997 Onshore Wind 96.5 49 129.357 120.864 91.398 Solar PV 63 140 54.197 66.282 69.300 Biogas 0.9   15.407 14.883 6.604 Battery storage 12 0.652 PHS 7 9.3 Hydrogen/methane storage 17 32.397 31.198 22.314 DSM 12.15 YEARLY ENERGY PRODUCTION (TWh) 41.9 247 24.188 26.862 25.932 261.2 359.037 335.464 253.680 81.6 147 71.034 86.872 90.828 8 2.6 (+15.9 biomass) 15 - 0.006 (24.4 - 6.1) = 18.3 12.97 10.031 10.329 (181.1 -86.8) for Gas & electricity 34.319 29.753 21.759 LCOE 49.018€/MWh 48.701€/MWh 42.316€/MWh Avoided additional cost of electrical heating 102€/MWh Load Curtailment 10.51% 9.65% 7.77%

The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Conclusion With the introduction of Load shifting, battery as a short term storage disappears DSM decreases the load curtailement, and final cost of the system but only load shifting with no change in the consumption behaviour doesn’t have visible result. Excluding heat demand from electricity demand results in: - much lower system costs (~6.6€/MWh less electricity cost) -less need for expensive inter-seasonal storage (~10GW less installed capacity of Methane/Hydrogen storage) -very low load curtailment (~7.5%)

Annex 1 model description The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Annex 1 model description Element set description   ℎ,ℎℎ ∈ H Hours (starting from 0 ending in 8783) 𝑚 ∈ M Months 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ∈ TEC Electricity generation and storage technology gen ∈ GEN ⊆ TEC Power plants (energy production technologies) 𝑣𝑟𝑒 ∈ VRE ⊆ TEC Variable renewable energy generation technologies str ∈ STR ⊆ TEC Energy storage technologies 𝑓𝑟𝑟 ∈ FRR ⊆ TEC Dispatchable technologies for secondary reserves Parameter unit description   𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ ℎ [-] A parameter to show which month each hour is in 𝑙𝑓 𝑣𝑟𝑒,ℎ Hourly production profiles of variable renewable energies 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ [GW] Hourly electricity demand profile 𝑙𝑎𝑘𝑒 𝑚 [GWh] Monthly extractable energy from lakes 𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟 ℎ Hourly run-of-river power generation 𝜀 𝑣𝑟𝑒 Additional FRR requirement for renewables because of forecast errors 𝑞 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝑒𝑥 The existing capacity of each of the technologies 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑡𝑒𝑐 [M€/GW/year] Annualized capital cost of each technology 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑒𝑛 [M€/GWh/year] Annualized capital cost of energy volume for storage technologies 𝑓𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐 Annualized fixed operation and maintenance cost 𝑣𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐 [M€/GWh] Variable operation and maintenance cost of each technology 𝜂 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑖𝑛 Charging efficiency of storage technologies 𝜂 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑2 ℎ [-] [GW] [GW] Discharging efficiency of storage technologies hourly electricity demand for residential heating Hourly electricity demand profile without electrical heating

Annex 1 model description The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Annex 1 model description Scalar value description 𝑞 𝑝𝑢𝑚𝑝 9.3GW Pumping capacity for Pumped hydro storage 𝑒 𝑃𝐻𝑆 𝑚𝑎𝑥 180GWh Maximum energy volume can be stored in PHS reservoirs 𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑥 15TWh Maximum yearly energy can be generated from biogas 𝛿 𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑦 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 0.01 Uncertainty coefficient for hourly electricity demand 𝛿 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝜂 𝑑𝑠𝑚 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 0.1 0.95 3 Load variation factor efficiency of load shifting advance delay limit for load shifting   variable Unit description   𝐺 𝑡𝑒𝑐,ℎ GWh Hourly electricity generation by each technology 𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 GW Yearly installed capacity of each technology 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐴𝐺𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ Hourly energy entering to each storage technology 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐸𝐷 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ Hourly energy stored in each technology 𝑉𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝐷𝐷 ℎ GWh GWh Energy volume of storage technologies Hourly delayed demand 𝐷𝑆 ℎ 𝐷𝐻 ℎ 𝑅𝑆𝑉 𝑓𝑟𝑟,ℎ GWh GWh GW Hourly served demand Hourly demand on hold Hourly upward frequency restoration requirement 𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇 b€ Overall final investment cost

Annex 1 model description Equations 𝐺 𝑣𝑟𝑒,ℎ = 𝑄 𝑣𝑟𝑒 × 𝑙𝑓 𝑣𝑟𝑒,ℎ (1) The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Annex 1 model description Equations 𝐺 𝑣𝑟𝑒,ℎ = 𝑄 𝑣𝑟𝑒 × 𝑙𝑓 𝑣𝑟𝑒,ℎ (1) 𝐺 𝑡𝑒𝑐,ℎ ≤ 𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 (2) 𝑄 𝑓𝑟𝑟 ≥ 𝐺 𝑓𝑟𝑟,ℎ + 𝑅𝑆𝑉 𝑓𝑟𝑟,ℎ (3) 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐸𝐷 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ+1 = 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐸𝐷 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ +( 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐴𝐺𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ × 𝜂 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑖𝑛 )−( 𝐺 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ 𝜂 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑜𝑢𝑡 ) (4) 𝐺 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ ≤ 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐸𝐷 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ (5) 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐸𝐷 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ ≤ 𝑉𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟 (6) 𝑙𝑎𝑘𝑒 𝑚 ≥ 𝑓𝑜𝑟 ℎ∈𝑚 𝐺 𝑙𝑎𝑘𝑒,ℎ (7) ℎ=0 8783 𝐺 𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑔𝑎𝑠,ℎ ≤ 𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑥 (8) 𝐷 ℎ 𝐻 = 𝐷 ℎ−1 𝐻 + 𝐺 𝑑𝑠𝑚,ℎ − 𝐷 ℎ 𝑆 (*) 𝐷 ℎ 𝐻 = 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 =0 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 =5 𝐺 𝑑𝑠𝑚,ℎ− 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 (*) 𝐷 ℎ 𝐻 = 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 =1 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 =6 𝐷 ℎ+ 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 𝑆 (*) 𝑓𝑟𝑟 𝑅𝑆𝑉 𝑓𝑟𝑟,ℎ = 𝑣𝑟𝑒 ( 𝜀 𝑣𝑟𝑒 × 𝑄 𝑣𝑟𝑒 ) + 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ ×(1+ 𝛿 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 )× 𝛿 𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑦 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 (9) 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝐺 𝑡𝑒𝑐,ℎ ≥ 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ + 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐴𝐺𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ + 𝐷 ℎ 𝑆 (10) 𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇= 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 − 𝑞 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝑒𝑥 × 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑡𝑒𝑐 + 𝑠𝑡𝑟 ( 𝑉𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟 × 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑒𝑛 )+ 𝑡𝑒𝑐 (𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 × 𝑓𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ) + 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ℎ ( 𝐺 𝑡𝑒𝑐,ℎ × 𝑣𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ) 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 − 𝑞 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝑒𝑥 × 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑡𝑒𝑐 + 𝑠𝑡𝑟 ( 𝑉𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟 × 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑒𝑛 )+ 𝑡𝑒𝑐 (𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 × 𝑓𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ) + 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ℎ ( 𝐺 𝑡𝑒𝑐,ℎ × 𝑣𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ) /1000 (11)

Annex 2 Input data references The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Annex 2 Input data references Hourly electricity demand for 2016 RTE (French transmission network operator) Yearly demand profile estimations ADEME (French environment and energy proficciency agency) VRE profiles from meteorology data Renewables.ninja Generation technology costs EU Joint Research Centre – Institute for Energy and Transport Storage technology costs FCH JU (fuel cell and hydrogen joint undertaking) and 32 companies and McKinsey & Company

Annex 3 VRE Input Data https://www.renewables.ninja/ The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Annex 3 VRE Input Data https://www.renewables.ninja/ Hourly Wind and Solar power generation (kW output) from 2000 to 2016 for the whole Europe Geofraphical precision up to 0.0001° Meteoroligical data from MERRA-2 (NASA) For wind power Installed capacity, Hub height and Turbine model can be specified. For solar power Installed capacity, System loss (by default 10%), Tracking (Azimuth, Tilt & Azimuth or none), Tilt (by default35°) and Azimuth (by default 180°) can be specified.

Annex 4 Cost Decomposition The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018 Annex 4 Cost Decomposition Technology Annuity (€/kW/year) Fixed O&M (€/kW/year) Variable O&M (€/MWh) Storage Capex (€/kWh/year) Offshore wind farm 149.2016 77.4 Onshore wind farm 83.2155 28.6 Solar PV 45.9676 10.88 Hydroelectricity – lake 97.2441 22 Hydroelectricity – run-of-river 248.4143 84.3 Bioenergy (biogas from Anaerobic digestion) 203.0856 55.2 3.1 Pumped hydro storage (PHS) 22.6156 4 8 0.2261 Battery storage (Li-Ion batteries) 10 2.6 26.548 Hydrogen (Electrolysis + Cumbustion/fuel cell) 89.9411 20 0.018 Methanation (Electrolysis + Methanation + Combustion) 156.5978 103.5 Demand Side Management (Load shifting) 2.2521