Carsten Olsson, Unit C0 John Verrinder, Unit C4 The impact of the financial crisis or An economic and financial crisis in figures Carsten Olsson, Unit C0 John Verrinder, Unit C4
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Background to the Financial Crisis Start in 2007 (US – Europe – worldwide) Debate on the main causes, but financial deregulation and asset bubbles commonly mentioned. Two main phases: 2007 to 2009: “Private” credit crisis 2010 to 2011…: “Public” credit crisis (government debt) Ongoing impacts on real economy GDP, unemployment
Policy responses Measures to address the crisis in financial markets Bank rescues Central Bank intervention Fiscal stimulus followed by austerity measures Partly the consequence of recession, but also policy. European Economic Governance European Systemic Risk Board Commission proposal of September 2010 Greater role for government debt; macroeconomic imbalances
The role of government…
Statistical issues Main conclusion is that statistics were not a cause of the financial crisis ! But the way in which statistics were used (“joining the dots”) could have been better… Main issues being addressed: More data on financial sector, especially linkages More emphasis on real estate prices (project underway) More data considered when analysing public finances
Some key indicators – GDP (seasonally adjusted)
Some key indicators - Unemployment
Some key indicators – Household net borrowing (loans)
Some key indicators – government debt
Conclusions Major economic and financial crisis Future improvements in: Policymaking (European economic governance…) Statistics (coverage of financial sector; timeliness) Statistics are highly relevant…!