Security & Cooperation

Security Challenges

Increase in Arms Transfers Cold War, post-CW More weapons in circulation UNSC P5 + 1 UN ATT proposal Rank Supplier Arms sales 1 U.S. $12.4 b 2 Russia $615 m 3 France $216 m 4 Germany $165 m 5 China $113 m 6 U.K. $121 m http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/toplist.php

Increase in Severity: Technology http://www.cleveland.com/world/index.ssf/2008/12/92_nations_sign_treaty_to_ban.html; Saudis use cluster bombs in Yemen

Increase in Frequency Decolonization Civil unrest One state, multiple nations Nation without a state

One State, Multiple Nations Ethnic Groups Pashtun 42% Tajik 27% Hazara 9% Uzbek 9% Ismaili 4% Nuristani 4% Turkmen 3% Baluchi 2%

Nation without a State Nations Kurds Chechnyas Basques Catalans 1 nation, 7 states Chechnyas Basques Catalans Others?

Recent Security Threats

Soviet Empire 15 Countries

History Repeating Itself? Rising Soviet Union Munich Conference  Sudetenland Appeasement Policy Concerns Neville Chamberlain ‘appeasing’ Hitler, 1938

Baltics = Sudetenland? Native-speaking Russians Fear annex by Russia Why is the Baltic situation compared to the Sudetenland? Native-speaking Russians Estonia = 25% Latvia = 27% Lithuania = 6% - but– Kaliningrad factor Fear annex by Russia Russia  Ukraine (Crimea annex) Latvian Russians’ support Poland’s concern Want EU, NATO to do more Tougher sanctions Gas supply ¤

NATO’s Russian City How is Narva, an Estonian city, a potential threat to its country? Razed by SU colonized by Russians Ethnic Russians = 83% of city Minority among Estonians Citizenship is divided Estonian (47%) v. Russian (37%) Fears of secession ¤

Finland’s Russia Concern Border History of invasion attempts Finland Georgia, Ukraine Limited allies Didn’t join NATO Sweden Russia’s ‘asymmetrical’ threats Asylum-seekers Arctic troops Cyber-attacks Russia’s ambitions ¤

Sweden & Russia Why concern about Russia? Neighbors Russian bombers Crimea Not NATO member, but ‘Host nation’ agreement Good strategic point to Baltics Norway NATO member Neighbors Finland- joint operations by air, sea Norway- joint exercises ¤

Russia’s Aggression- Recap Ukraine Crimea annexed Eastern revolt Ethnic Russians in Baltics Finland Norwegian waters, Arctic Circle Syria Vostok 2018 link NATO’s concerns ¤ http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/01/the-secret-source-of-putins-evil

North Korea Concerns link UN Resolution 2270 (2016) http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35835088 Concerns link UN Resolution 2270 (2016) Sanction violations Coal exports link, oil imports link ¤ http://time.com/4067670/north-korea-kim-jong-un-award-indonesia-sukarno/

Terrorism What is terrorism? Instill terror in civilians Political, religious, ideological Colonization, westernization ¤ http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-russia-st-petersburg-subway-terrorist-attack-a7665291.html

Int’l Terrorism State-sponsored terrorism Organize, attack across borders al-Qaeda, IS, al-Shabab State-sponsored terrorism Rwanda (Tutsi)  M23 Congo rebels Iran (Shia)  Hezbollah, Houthis ¤ http://www.bbc.com/news/world-29063111

Domestic Terrorism Objectives Is domestic opposition terrorism? Attention Challenge gov’t Independence Basques- Eta Is domestic opposition terrorism? Freedom fighters v. terrorists ¤ https://www.britannica.com/place/Basque-Country-region-Spain Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK)

Additional Threats Transnational crime Cyber attacks Piracy Traffic drugs, humans, weapons, etc. Cyber attacks Target infrastructure Steal data Bias elections Piracy World health Pandemics ¤ http://www.economist.com/node/21635049/print

Security through Cooperation

Collective Security Bilateral Multilateral- NATO, AU, UN, etc. Finland & Sweden, US & S Korea Multilateral- NATO, AU, UN, etc. Antipersonnel Mine Treaty 161 signed- Russia, China didn’t U.S.  sign w/ Korea exception UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) Nuclear, chemical, biological conventions ¤ http://www.rainbowfund.org/landmines/

Charcoal & Somalia

Combatting Terrorism Supply Demand Unique charcoal Charcoal & Somalia Supply Demand Unique charcoal Gulf states – shisha lounges al-Shabab takes a cut Ignore ban ‘Taxes’ ¤ ‘Shareholders’ UN export ban enforcement Weapons from Yemen

Combatting Terrorism (cont.) Curbing exports: AU, Somali troops Move to Kismayo Use anti-piracy forces Get sanction compliance ¤

Consequences of COnflict

Arab Spring Arab Spring -2011 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring

Arab Spring uprising in Syria Civil war (2011) link Assad gov’t v. rebels Kurds EU, US back Kurds Turkey fights Kurds Other issues Islamic State presence Iran backs Hezbollah in Lebanon Israel v. Iran UNSC paralyzed by Russia Vetoed UN Resolution ¤ Pro-Assad Pro-Rebels Iran E.U. Russia U.S. Turkey https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2015/05/syria-country-divided-150529144229467.html

Syria Mass extermination Mass migration > 500,000 deaths Chemical weapons, bombings Mass migration Internal External 5.6+M link ¤ Syrian refugee camp in Jordan- 600,000+ people

Yemen Arab Spring uprising Civil war (2014) Hadi gov’t- Sunni Muslims Backed by SA, several MENA, UK, US, FR President in exile Houthi rebels- Shia Backed by Iran al-Qaeda presence Death, injuries, disease, famine, migration ¤ https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2016/08/yemen-conflict-controls-160814132104300.html

The Bigger Picture Regional struggle: Iran v. Saudi Arabia Proxy wars Iran backs Shia Muslims Russia Saudi back Sunni Muslims The West, Israel, Gulf States (except Qatar) Proxy wars Syria Yemen ¤

What are the int’l consequences of conflict? Spill-over effect Creates hostilities Interferes with trade Forestalls development Emigration Intervention issues ¤

Recap ↑ conflict Recent threats Need int’l cooperation Nations w/in states; nations w/o states Recent threats Arab Spring Syria, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon N. Korea Russia Need int’l cooperation ¤