GHG projections for the energy sector, transport, industry and waste management : Summary of discussion Workshop on emissions projections from Annex I Parties Bonn, 6-8 September 2004

Presentations The following countries made presentations at this session: –Belgium –China –Czech Republic –Latvia –Lithuania –Netherlands –Slovenia –Turkey –United States The exchange of experience through these presentations and subsequent discussions was very useful and important.

Objectives To discuss methods, assumptions, [etc] and dissemination of methodologies Share and compare information through presentations and discussion is key outcome of session –Value to parties is what they themselves take away –Wide range of very complex issues –Projections best practice differs from inventory

Some key points overall Transparent presentation of assumptions and data was found to be very important. –For quality GHG projections, clear and sufficient presentation of key assumptions and critical data may be as important as the modelling process itself. Also useful to vary key assumptions and identify sensitivity of projected emissions –Varying views on GDP, importance of structural issues

Some key points overall Agreed that projections methodology, choice of models etc ultimately matters for Governments Discussion of value of common international assumptions –Oil prices, carbon prices etc Issues about: –Who provide data –Timeliness –Whether Govts would welcome constraint –But sharing information useful

Stationary combustion Value of countries consulting with neighbours – especially re common issues Value of having robust and available models discussed –Concerns about whether free and costs of adapting/using –Bottom up models seen as easier to translate Discussion of modelling P&Ms: both endogenous and exogenous approaches used –NM issue again- discussion about whether useful –Many countries focus on WM/WAM for policy choices Use of Key Source Analysis/Key driver analysis generally supported

Stationary combustion Value of having complete energy balance Discussion of including international emissions trading in projections –Does not change domestic emissions –But part of analysis of policy choices –For ETS, it may be too early to evaluate impact on emissions Saudi Arabia: need to model spill-over effects on non-Annex I Parties and ways to have win-win policies

B. Transport Emissions from transport should be shown separately from the emissions of the rest of the energy sector. Important to model individual transport modes and the selection among modes Saudi Arabia: emissions taxation in transport => impact on non-Annex I Parties Bunker fuels: Saudi Arabia = it is premature; Germany = no methodological problems; Belgium: need to have for complete energy balances

Industry, waste management Importance of having data on activity levels and emission factors Importance of presenting results and assumptions clearly. F-Gases: rapidly changing industry –Need for reality check on projections