Managed Instability: The NATO-Russia Strategic Relationship

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Presentation transcript:

Managed Instability: The NATO-Russia Strategic Relationship Thomas Frear European Leadership Network

Reassessment of the Relationship Fundamental differences in interpretation of international law and norms Nuclear weapons have played large implicit and explicit roles throughout the Ukraine crisis

The Good News New START INF (for now: non-compliance charges) On track to meet 2018 numbers of deployed warheads and delivery systems (but Russian numbers worrying) Verification mechanisms remain fully functional and fully utilised INF (for now: non-compliance charges) Treaty on Open Skies Surveillance flights still taking place – crucial confidence building measure Turkey-Russia rift threatens this process

The Bad News Russian rejection of New START expansion INF challenges Russian withdrawal from Nuclear Security Summit process Shuttering of NATO-Russia Council

Bad News Continued NSNW and dual use systems Military encounters, large portion involve strategic aviation NSNW and dual use systems Russian air-launched cruise missile demonstration, 18/11/15

Prospects for the Future Strategic relationship cannot be viewed in isolation – Action must be incremental New START Dual-capable systems must be addressed more thoroughly Playbook of Euro-Atlantic not well enough developed – risk of unintended escalation Memorandum of Understanding would reduce risk: Better environment for strategic talks NSNW issue must continue to be raised

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