An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on Washington State Marketa McGuire Elsner University of Washington JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering In cooperation with: Jeremy S. Littell, Edward L. Miles, Dennis P. Lettenmaier March 5, 2008 Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop 2008 Intro: The Climate Impacts Group is an interdisciplinary group whose goal is to conduct research on the impacts of climate change on natural resources as well as human communities. An additional goal is to provide the latest scientific information for use by decision makers. This morning I will present a project that is currently underway to assess what the consequences of climate change are on Washington State. I will also be presenting a poster this afternoon. This talk focuses on project background and framework, while the poster will focus on preliminary findings that were presented in an interim project report. Climate science in the public interest

Outline Background of WA State climate impacts assessment Project framework (sneak preview of results) Project objectives Relationship between impacts assessment another state climate change initiative I will begin by providing background of the project, then I will talk about the framework for the project because there are a number of parallel components involved. Although my poster session this afternoon will present key preliminary findings, I will present a preview of results here. I will also discuss the project objectives, or focus points; And, discuss how this work relates to other climate change initiatives currently underway in the Washington.

Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment The Climate Impacts Group is working with two state agencies who are overseeing the project: The Department of Community Trade and Economic Development and, The Department of Ecology (investigate what are the parallel agencies in NC) The funding for this project came from a Clean Air and Clean Fuels Bill (HB1303) passed by the state legislation. Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303 Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx

HB 1303 Background Legislation signed by Washington Governor in Spring 2007 Bill’s goal is to reduce the state’s dependence on fossil fuels and to build a clean energy economy via: Policies and incentive programs to help businesses, consumers, and farmers have access to cleaner fuels Impacts analysis and emission accounting procedures that prepare Washington to respond and prosper as climate changes As additional Background, This legislation passed last spring and its goals are to reduce the state’s dependence on fossil fuels, encourage use of renewable energy sources, and establish policies and incentive programs to help make this happen. The legislation also calls for impacts analyses and emissions accounting procedures that prepare Washington for the changes to come. In this section of the bill, the University of Washington is charged with performing an integrated climate impacts assessment. The bill provides that, to reduce fossil fuel dependence and build our clean energy economy, the state should develop policies and incentives that help businesses, consumers, and farmers gain greater access to affordable clean fuels and vehicles and to produce clean fuels in the state. These policies and incentives should include: Incentives for replacement of the most polluting diesel engines, especially in school buses; Transitional incentives for development of the most promising in-state clean fuels and fuel feedstocks, including biodiesel crops and ethanol from plant waste; Reduced fossil fuel consumption by state fleets; (4) Development of promising new technologies for displacing petroleum with electricity, such as "plug-in hybrids"; and (5) Impact analysis and emission accounting procedures that prepare Washington to respond and prosper as global warming impacts occur and as policies and markets to reduce global warming pollution are developed.

Human Health Infrastructure Agriculture/Economics Water Resources A comprehensive state climate change assessment that includes the impacts of global warming Coasts Energy In this impacts assessment, we are evaluating the impacts of climate change on essentially eight sectors, including hydrology and water resources, energy, salmon, forest resources, coasts, agriculture, and human health. The Climate Impacts Group has performed similar assessments in the past; however, this work includes new sectors in which there is little past research. These include coasts, agriculture, health, and infrastructure. We will also be assessing barriers, both legal and institutional, to climate change adaptation. Forest Resources Salmon Adaptation / Legal Barriers

Project Domain The project domain is Washington state. However, in order to assess impacts to hydrology and other sectors, we must include the entire Pacific Northwest region in our analyses. The Pacific Northwest consists of the Columbia River basin (spanning multiple states) and the coastal drainages. We are also performing more detail case studies on the Puget Sound region of Washington, in which there are a number of resources competing for water, as well as the Yakima River basin, which contains many of the state’s high value crops like hops, grapes, and tree fruits.

Conceptual Approach to Assessment Integrated assessment of regional climate impacts: The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socioeconomic systems affect each other This is very much and integrated assessment because many of the sectors that I mentioned affect eachother. Changing hydrology, for example, impacts many things such as forest productivity, salmon productivity, and socioeconomic groups – such as during times of flood. Wildfires may impact human health through increased smoke and other particulates. Source: Snover et al. (2002). Integrating Natural and Social Science for Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference. Louisiana, May 2002.

Goals of the Impacts Assessment Evaluate impacts of climate change into the next century use IPCC 2007 climate scenarios show regional impacts and areas of high and low sensitivity to climate change characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) with help from UW Law School provide tools for policy makers and user groups collaborate with Governor’s Climate Change Challenge team The overarching goal of this assessment is to evaluate the impacts of climate change over the next 100 years, with particular emphasis on the next 50 years. To accomplish this, we are utilizing climate projections produced by the IPCC in the latest assessment report (4th assessment report). We will show impacts regionally and identify areas of high/low sensitivity. We will characterize barriers (legal and institutional) to adapting to the identified impacts. We will hopefully provide tools that policymakers and stakeholders can use for planning purposes. We are also collaborating with another state climate initiative To be completed December 2008

Data Needs to Support a 21st Century Planning Framework Incorporating Climate Information and Uncertainty Approach provides ensemble of variables that can be used to evaluate impacts of climate change 2 Emissions Scenarios 20 GCMs 2 Downscaling Approaches X X IPCC Climate Scenarios Precipitation Air Temperature Streamflow Soil Moisture PET VPD And more! Overall Process for HB1303 Project: Generally, a range of scenarios of climate change to 2100 are input to a hydrology model that provides projections of streamflow and other hydrologic variables. -We are utilizing 100 year projections from approximately 20 GCMs, each of which has projections using 2 emissions scenarios. These emissions scenarios, A1B and B1, represent stabilization of CO2 by 2100. The B1 scenario is more ecologically friendly than A1B. They generally represent the range of possibly temperature changes into the future. -The GCM scenarios, which are at a resolution of approximately 3-4 degrees, must be downscaled to the resolution of the hydrology model. We utilize 2 downscaling approaches including a statistical approach and an approach that incorporates results from regional climate models. The downscaled GCM predictions and resulting hydrologic predictions provide a range of possibilities of future climate change which the various sectors can use to evaluate the impacts in their areas. This is a more specific look at how we conduct an impacts assessment. The dynamics of the climate provides a basis of information from which we can make assessments of hydrology and other things. What we learn about the hydrology can then be applied to other sectors and these analyses provide a basis of information that policymakers can use in their decisions. Hydrology Modeling

Projected Increases in PNW Temperature 14.4°F Changes relative to 1970-1999 7.2°F 3.6°F 0°F +2.2ºF (1.1-3.4ºF) +3.5ºF (1.6-5.2ºF) +5.9ºF (2.8-9.7ºF) °C 10.8°F The average warming rate in the Pacific Northwest during the next century is expected to be in the range 0.1-0.6°C (0.2-1.0°F) per decade, with a best estimate of 0.3°C (0.5°F) per decade. For comparison, observed warming in the second half of the 20th century was approximately 0.2°C (about 0.4°F) per decade. The warming trend for the 20th century overall was 0.15°F per decade. In every scenario, the future warming greatly exceeds natural variability. Trends in precipitation are less certain. A modest increase (+1-2%) in average annual precipitation is expected through the 2040s, although individual models produce a wide range of results.   Figure: Smoothed traces in temperature for the 39 model simulations, relative to the 1970-99 mean. The smooth curve for each scenario is the Reliability Ensemble Average (REA) value, calculated for each year. The average provided above each box is the REA for that decade; the low and high values represent the lowest and highest value from either scenario (B1 or A1B) 2020s temperature precipitation low 0.6°C (1.1°F) -9% average 1.2°C (2.2°F) +1% high 1.9°C (3.4°F) +12% 2040s temperature precipitation low 0.9°C (1.6°F) -11% average 2.0°C (3.5°F) +2% high 2.9°C (5.2°F) +12% 2080s temperature precipitation low 1.6°C (2.8°F) -10% average 3.3°C (5.9°F) +4% high 5.4°C (9.7°F) +20% 10

Projected Increases in PNW Precipitation

Sector Focus Points Hydrology/Water Resources Energy Salmon Impacts to rivers and response of state’s physical water management infrastructure Produce future hydrologic scenarios at over 200 locations in the Pacific Northwest (related project) Energy Impacts to hydropower production (Columbia River) and regional heating & cooling degree days Salmon Productivity of State’s streams for salmonids Regions and conditions under which salmonid habitat is most vulnerable I’d like to briefly describe the objectives or focus areas of each of the project sectors: Water – we are assessing impacts to rivers in terms of changes in snowpack, streamflow and other hydrologic variables as well as assess impacts to regional water management - in conjunction with another related project, we will be producing 100-year hydrologic scenarios, based on the 40 ensembles of future climate, at over 200 locations in the PNW Energy – we are assessing impacts to hydropower production, as hydropower produces a majority of power for Washington State. We are also evaluating changes in heating and cooling degree days. Salmon – We are assessing the productivity of the state’s salmon bearing streams and evaluating conditions that make salmon habitat most vulnerable.

Sector Focus Points Agriculture/Economics Forests Coasts Impacts on productivity and sustainability of State’s agriculture, focusing on key crops (tree fruits, grapes, potatoes) Forests Impacts to growth and productivity of forests and their susceptibility to fire and insect disturbance Coasts Impacts of sea level rise on structures (inundation and flooding) Changes in erosion on bluffs, spits, ocean beaches Agriculture – We are assessing impacts on the productivity of the states agriculture by focusing on a few major crops (grapes, tree fruits, potatoes) Forests – We are assessing impacts to forest in terms of their productivity and species distribution - we are also investigating susceptibility of forests to fire and pest disturbance Coasts – We are looking at how projected sea level rise may impact structures through inundation and the potential for increased flooding due to increased storm surges - we are also looking at the impacts of erosion in the coastal areas.

Sector Focus Points Infrastructure Health Impacts on vulnerable elements of civil infrastructure (stormwater systems) Consider precipitation variability and flood frequency/magnitude Health Impacts of ozone and particulate matter on childhood asthma Heat stress and potential increases in mortality Infrastructure – We are focusing on stormwater systems and how they might be impacted by increased precipitation variability (flood frequency/volume). Health - We are focusing on two areas where we may quantify impacts and these include impacts of ozone and particulate matter on childhood asthma as well as increased heat stress and potential increases in mortality.

Relationship between Impacts Assessment and Washington State Climate Initiative

Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce CO2 emissions Make recommendations on improved preparedness and adaptation Draft recommendations Complete Final report February 2008

Relationship between PAWGs and HB1303 Sectors

Highlights Washington State supports climate change study and linkages between science and decision-making. Integrated assessment approach which connects climate predictions to hydrology and other impact sectors.

The Climate Impacts Group Marketa McGuire Elsner More information on the Climate Impacts Group or WA State Climate Impacts Assessment The Climate Impacts Group www.cses.washington.ed/cig Marketa McGuire Elsner mmcguire@u.washington.edu Climate science in the public interest