Advance Planning Wayne Buck NATO UNCLASSIFIED 25-Dec-18 Good day. I would like to talk to you about a topic that I am quite passionate about. Simulation in support of analysis. NATO does not do this very well. Whether the culprit be culture, resources, lack of experience, or ignorance, we do not use simulation as much as we should. Wayne Buck 25-Dec-18 NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Agenda Background and context M&S in Support of Analysis The Future MSG-167 During this brief about 15 video, I want to go over three basis items. The first is the background, it is important to know that whenever we do a review or write a new vision document, we always have this as a topic but previously have not put it into play. Secondly, what the heck is simulation in support of analysis and what are we doing about it now. Thirdly, how will these activities affect the future. 25-Dec-18 FUSOL

M&S in Support of Analysis M&S Support to Analysis includes: operations analysis, planning, decision making, concept development, and any other area that is not related to training eg test and evaluation 25-Dec-18 FUSOL

Activities Supporting the Growth of M&S Support to Analysis Studies directed by NATO HQ MSG 167 – NATO Simulation for Uses Other Than Training MSG 155 – Data Farming Services for Analysis and Simulation Based Decision Support MSG 150 – M&S Supporting NATO CD&E SAS 130 – Course of Action Analysis in the 21st Century SAS 139 – NATO Analytical Wargaming – Innovative Approaches for Data Capture, Analysis and Exploitation Talk briefly about each activity 25-Dec-18 FUSOL

Advance Planning “We took measures to speed up our political and military decision-making, while maintaining political control.  “These include the authority for our Supreme Commander SACEUR to alert, stage and prepare our troops to be ready to go once the political decision is made. We also approved a new concept of advance planning. Detailed advance planning and rapid decision-making are two sides of the same coin. They mean we are able to respond more rapidly and more effectively to threats – wherever they might come from.” Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, June 24, 2015 25-Dec-18 FUSOL

A2AD Simulation Study (wargaming) A simulation data driven analytical study to inform military judgement and advice regarding an advance plan. First time since 1985. 25-Dec-18 FUSOL

A2AD Simulation Study Parameters Planning Handshake Execution Outputs Advance Planning Jun 16 - Initial thoughts Dec 16 – NAC / MC tasker 2017 – plan and rehearse 2018 – Jan-Mar execute 2018 – Apr-Jun write and staff Eessentially, a small CAX Heavy use of analysts STORM – closed JTLS - open Parameters Planning Handshake Execution Outputs AAR 2-3 Days JTLS Cycle MJP Prioritise Vignettes STORM Identify Planners Develop ConOps Analysis Guide This project is the first time in recent history that NATO has used simulation to assist with advance planning. In fact, the title is misleading – this was actually an analytical study regarding A2AD that was informed by simulation. You can see the dates that the study was carried out. On 3 Sep, the results were sent from the MC to the NAC who will comment. The diagram that you see is the methodology used for the one week rehearsal and two x two week execution periods. 25-Dec-18 FUSOL

About 35,000 – 40,000 manhours Or about 22 manyears One week of rehearsal Two x two week execution sessions Hundreds of facilitated discussions

Results Hard Results – cannot share Soft Results Planners plan for the plan that has the most chance of success while achieving commander’s intent Planners need to learn they can fail while planning All plans need to be joint from the beginning NATO needs data driven analysis to inform decision makers Need more wargaming 25-Dec-18 FUSOL NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Connections UK 2018 25-Dec-18 FUSOL

I3 Week

The Future More studies Follow on NMSG/SAS TG for NATO Simulation for Uses Other Than Training M&S and OR teams now have wargaming in job descriptions Continue to collect information Share information in Education / Marketing in venues NATO Military Strategy Wargame – Mar 19 PolMil Wargame late 2019 or early 2020 More studies 25-Dec-18 FUSOL

Wayne Buck buck@act.nato.int 25-Dec-18 FUSOL